Free: Santa Anita analysis for Sunday, May 17, 2020

Free: Santa Anita analysis for Sunday, May 17, 2020

BEST BET: Bellafina (8th race)

First Race
1. Lofty 2. Thriving 3. Querelle
First post 12:30 on Sunday. LOFTY, the only three-time winner at the meet, seeks her fourth straight in this turf sprint. The front-running filly is faster than her rivals, she figures to make the lead and be gone. Speed is effective with the rails at this 10-foot setting. Into the weekend, the last 10 turf sprints at this configuration produced 3 front-running winners, 7 that "rallied" from second or third. LOFTY is the favorite and the one to catch. THRIVING has enough speed to keep the top choice in her sights, and would be among the first wave to pounce if the favorite misfires. THRIVING finished fourth last out in what might be a "live" race. Eighth-place finisher Shanghai Truffles returned to win Thursday at Golden Gate, third-place finisher Quick was scheduled to start favored in the eighth race Friday at Santa Anita. QUERELLE will fly from the back. She finished second last out, in front of THRIVING. Presser QUEEN OF THE TRACK could get a great trip positioned second behind the speed.

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Second Race
1. Miss Glorious 2. Self Isolation 3. Love Wins
This is the first 2-year-old race of the season; MISS GLORIOUS is working as if she will win first out for trainer Andrew Lerner. Sired by Goldencents (14 percent 2yo debut winners), MISS GLORIOUS has shown gas in morning works and is "live" at first asking. SELF ISOLATION is a Square Eddie first-time starter whose trainer Doug O'Neill is 14 for 35 (40 percent) the past five years at Santa Anita with debut 2yos at four and a half. 'ISOLATION is a full sibling to Quant Savant, O'Neill-trained 2yo debut winner last May. SELF ISOLATION was quick out of the gate her most recent workout May 11 (viewed on XBTV.com). LOVE WINS also debuts with a workout pattern that indicates she is well meant. She veered out at the break in her May 11 gate work, but straightened out and produced speed. Trainer Luis Mendez is 1 for 8 with 2yo firsters at Santa Anita.

Third Race
1. Afternoon Heat 2. Shuster 3. I Belong to Becky
AFTERNOON HEAT finished in the money both previous starts at this Cal-bred N1X level, and maintained form with a decent starter-allowance win last out in a three-horse field. The colt's speed figures nearly match the 83 Beyer par for this level, the inside post has not been a drawback this season. SHUSTER, gelded since his most recent start three months ago, was nominated to the $150k Echo Eddie Stakes on Saturday but opted for this allowance sprint vs. older. His only previous start on this track was the best race of his three-start career, a dominating maiden win by more than four lengths. I BELONG TO BECKY is quick, and goes first start off the claim by Bill Spawr. 'BECKY won this condition last fall at Del Mar, and enters back for the optional $20k claim tag.

Fourth Race
1. Ole Silver 2. Noor Khan 3. Liberalism
Taking a shot in this Cal-bred maiden sprint with first-time starter OLE SILVER, who debuts with a solid work pattern for trainer Phil D'Amato. The filly hails from a female family that produces early runners. Her Grade 1-placed dam Silver Swallow "won" her second career start (disqualified for interference); the three runners she produced as a broodmare include debut winner The Street Fighter, third-start maiden-claiming winner Mommy Rose, and 40-1 debut runner-up Silver Claim, a full to OLE SILVER, also trained by D'Amato. The familiar faces in this field are modest; OLE SILVER can come out firing. D'Amato also starts comebacker NOOR KHAN, third both starts last year and working well for her comeback. LIBERALISM has speed, and is among the logical choices based on runner-up finishes both starts last summer vs. Cal-bred maiden juveniles. VA VA VOOM fits if she transfers her turf form to dirt. LOVELY FINISH has the highest last-out Beyer, a 78 finishing second behind Echo Eddie favorite Big Sweep (race 6 on Saturday).

Fifth Race
1. Bud Knight 2. Tropical Terror 3. Brix
Eight-start maiden BUD KNIGHT, in the money three of his last four, gets the call in this Cal-bred maiden turf mile based largely on his runner-up finish last out. He missed by a half-length, the winner and third-place finisher both won next out. TROPICAL TERROR finished in the money his last four starts. He and the top choice look like the field's fastest finishers, 3yo 'TERROR gets a six-pound weight break over BUD KNIGHT. BRIX is an eight-start maiden quick enough to make the lead; FRAVEL was gelded since his most recent start. GAMBINI has the fastest come-home, a 23.16-second final quarter in his fifth-place debut in January.

Sixth Race
1. St. Joe Bay 2. Rowayton 3. Hot Sean
ST. JOE BAY bombed as the favorite last out, with no visible alibi. Maybe the veteran did not handle the ship to Oaklawn Park, or an unfamiliar surface. But he does like Santa Anita, one-two nine of 15 starts here including a creditable comeback two back in which he dueled on a fast pace in a G2 before he tired. The "back-class" gelding returns to a familiar setting, his best race is faster than the others. ROWAYTON was a top juvenile prospect in 2018. He placed in a pair of G1's; his 2019 campaign includes a highly rated allowance win and a close fourth in a G1. Off since summer, working fast, proven fresh, the lightly raced colt still has time to develop into a top older horse. HOT SEAN is a five-time winner who has won at this N2X/optional-claiming level. First start since January and first start off the $40k claim, he runs well fresh and has enough speed to establish position from the inside post.

Seventh Race
1. Classy Ruler 2. Madison Parc 3. Sweet Devil
CLASSY RULER is hard to like based on her disappointing fourth last out as the favorite in a similar maiden route. However, she is easy to like based on runner-up finishes her first two starts. Perhaps her most recent was an aberration: the one-two pacesetters dominated and the wacky winner paid $138. The previous route by CLASSY RULER was a wide-trip second in which she finished nearly five lengths clear of third. 'RULER, well-regarded, gets another chance. MADISON PARC ran well in her fourth-place debut. Racing a mile on a slow ("good") turf, wide much of the trip, she missed by slightly more than two lengths. Excellent debut by the Curlin filly, who can improve with racing. SWEET DEVIL was not disgraced finishing third in her initial route attempt. That race was 1 1/8 miles off just a single sprint prep. Good effort, she is another lightly raced filly likely to improve.

Eighth Race
1. Bellafina 2. Mother Mother 3. Artistic Diva
BELLAFINA should win this G3 sprint at low odds, even if six furlongs is a furlong shorter than her optimum trip. BELLAFINA emerged last year a top-class female sprinter, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and runner-up in the fast-pace G1 La Brea. Her recent comeback at Oaklawn Park was a debacle. She broke slowly from the rail, got in all sorts of early trouble, launched a wide move on the turn and flattened out. Not bad under the circumstances. She came back with a sharp workout here last weekend (viewed on XBTV.com), lands a more desirable post, and enters as simply the "best horse" in the field. MOTHER MOTHER is a notch below the top choice in terms of ability, but 'MOTHER probably benefits by the shorter 6f distance. She has speed and a versatile style that allows her to adapt to the pace scenario. ARTISTIC DIVA is an interesting upset candidate. She is quick enough to make the lead, and with a comeback race under her belt, has a shot to steal it at a price. AMUSE returns from a long layoff with a series of fast works that suggest she can fire first start back; FIRST STAR will roll late.

Ninth Race
1. Lucky Ms Jones 2. Sutro 3. Kleen Karma
LUCKY MS JONES drops in for a claim tag for the first time, her turf-mile speed figures match the Beyer par for this level, and her fastest finishes were at this distance. A similar comment applies to SUTRO. First-time tag, she finished in less than 24 seconds all three starts at a mile on turf. KLEEN KARMA looms an upset candidate, first-time long and first-time grass. Her pedigree (Clubhouse Ride, European mare) suggests she could move up at this distance/footing. INVINCIBELLA finished second at this class level last time out.

Tenth Race
1. Winning Element 2. Lambeau 3. Tizamagician
WINNING ELEMENT, a six-time winner, gets the nod over lightly raced LAMBEAU. Both recent starts by WINNING ELEMENT (February, March) were open-length $40-50k claiming wins in fast times. He has tactical speed, he can rally, and enters as the "best horse." LAMBEAU missed by a nose last out at this level, which validated his fast-pace runner-up comeback two back. Though favored both losses, he ran well each time. Not sure what type of trip he will get, however. He typically sets the pace, but the stretch-out sprinter in post 6 complicates the scenario. TIZAMAGICIAN, a 3yo, improved this winter. Tough outside post, however. KISS TODAY GOODBYE ran the best race of his five-start career last time, a highly rated maiden win. The light bulb is now on. SOLDIER BOY is the aforementioned sprinter, first time long. Come and catch him.