Free: Ruffian might be right time to spout some Gibberish

A power shift is under way in the distaff division. Letruska upset a thrilling edition of the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park; As Time Goes By crushed the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita. Meanwhile, the distaff focus on Sunday is the Grade 2 Ruffian at Belmont Park.

In the seven years since the Ruffian returned to Belmont, the one-turn mile has been a parade of small-field chalk. Field size numbered six starters or fewer, favorites won 5 of 7. More chalk this year? Maybe not.

One reason Ruffian favorites routinely deliver is because they are fast – six of the seven winners had earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 or higher. This year’s Ruffian field does not include any “fast” runners.

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Only one entrant earned a big fig. The problem with the 99 Beyer earned by Our Super Freak is it happened at Monmouth.

For whatever reason, high Monmouth figs are unique, and rarely reproduced elsewhere. Our Super Freak, since her career-high fig last summer, has not earned a figure within six points of her top. Her last-out 92 is not fast relative to recent Ruffian winners.

Lake Avenue crushed an ungraded stakes race last time and is the 7-5 Ruffian favorite by linemaker David Aragona, who lists Our Super Freak at 8-5. Either could win, especially based on recent history of Ruffian favorites.

But maybe this year’s Ruffian field, with no figs to warrant taking a short price, is open for an upset winner. Enter the longshot comebacker Gibberish, listed 8-1.

Gibberish is not fast enough on figs, but she is fast enough to make the lead.

Gibberish is drawn outside in the field of six, and if she does not set the pace outright, she is likely to be pressing easy splits. At 8-1, Gibberish is worth a Ruffian gamble.

Santa Anita juveniles

The 2-year-old racing season in Southern California is under way; California-breds race 4 1/2 furlongs in the second race Sunday at Santa Anita.

Big City Lights should be tough, based on breeding, workouts, and trainer. The colt is by Mr. Big, whose debut juvenile progeny won at 11 percent, according to DRF Formulator. The win rate is average.

Formulator pedigree data also includes racing history of the dam and her progeny. Big City Lights is a sibling to Exchange Vows, who won her debut last summer as a 2-year-old by three lengths. Formulator also offers support for trainer Luis Mendez, who won with three of his first five debut 2-year-olds racing 4 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita last year.

Finally, Big City Lights on April 19 outworked his stablemate Drizella, an unraced filly listed as program favorite Friday in race 2. As for Big City Light’s odds, that is uncertain. But based on normal handicapping, Big City Lights should be tough to beat in race 2.

Looking ahead to Preakness

Sunday morning after the Kentucky Derby is fun for debate. Was the winner best? Who was unlucky, and could he have won? By Monday, the focus shifts to the Preakness and Belmont.

Here are a few forward-looking info-bits, excluding the 2020 lockdown year:

Derby winners (first across the wire) have won four of the last eight Preakness Stakes, and are 9 for 20 in the Preakness the past two decades. Only one Derby runner-up (second over the wire) since 2009 won next out, while the last four spring-Derby thirds dropped in class and won their next start.

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Can a horse who skipped the Derby, like Concert Tour, win the Preakness? It happened once the past decade. Cloud Computing, third in the 2017 Wood Memorial, entered the Preakness fresh and paid $28.80.

From 2000 to 2009, three Preakness Stakes were won by horses that were not in the Derby – Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Withers winner Bernardini in 2006, and Wood runner-up Red Bullet in 2000. Still, it is tall order, because 21 of the past 25 Preakness Stakes were won by a horse who ran in the Derby.

Red-board review

All three selections from this column last Sunday ran their race, including 9.30-1 Amazen Grazen in the Campanile Stakes, race 9 at Golden Gate. Perhaps if she had broken with the field instead of dead last, she might have posted an upset rather than finish second to wire-to-wire favorite I’m So Anna. More likely, Amazen Grazen was second best.

Still, Amazen Grazen fired, which is half the battle. The $1 exacta from I’m So Anna to Amazen Grazen paid $17.10. In the Silky Sullivan Stakes, race 11 at Golden Gate, None Above the Law returned a surprisingly high $8.40 winning by nearly three lengths.

Sunday at Santa Anita, “tepid choice” Petruchio finished a troubled second in the Singletary Stakes, race 9. The replay (SA, April 25, race 9) is worth watching. Petruchio might have been best, though 1.50-1 odds is nothing to brag about.

◗ Quote of the week from social media: “Some of the best decisions are going to be the races you decide to pass on.”