Free: Playing horses is all about risk versus reward

No reasonable horseplayer expects Monomoy Girl to be defeated in her comeback Sunday at Oaklawn Park.

She is the class of the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes, with superior Beyer Speed Figures and a pressing style in a race light on speed. She has trained forwardly, and runs well fresh. The handicapping basics of class, speed, pace, and condition are why Monomoy Girl is likely to be odds-on.

All things equal, there is no reason to bet against her. But in the risk-versus-reward world of parimutuel wagering, all things are not equal. Low odds equal low risk, based on the likelihood of cashing a bet. Monomoy Girl is low odds, low risk. She probably will win.

But here’s a crazy idea – there is no such thing as a sure thing, even for Breeders’ Cup Distaff winners such as Monomoy Girl. Only eight of 27 Distaff winners that ran again won their next start. That includes Monomoy Girl, who paid $3 when she returned last spring following a year and a half off.

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Of course, few of the 19 Distaff winners that lost next out returned with a 13-for-15 record such as Monomoy Girl. But stuff happens. Upsets happen.

Untapable, the 2014 Distaff winner, finished second at 1-10 when she ran back. Ashado, the 2004 Distaff winner, finished fifth at 1-2. By coincidence, Untapable and Ashado both lost at Oaklawn. The list goes on. Distaff winners that lost at odds-on include Bayakoa, Dance Smartly, Paseana, Hollywood Wildcat, Ajina, Beautiful Pleasure, and Round Pond.

Maybe the Bayakoa is not a foregone conclusion, after all. Perhaps a higher risk, higher odds alternative is available.

Three of six Bayakoa entrants stable regularly at Oaklawn, where racing and training were interrupted by a winter freeze. Who knows if the interruption affected Chance to Shine, Another Broad, and Istan Council. Perhaps their preparation was not ideal.

The other Bayakoa starters are Fair Grounds-based Monomoy Girl, Our Super Freak, and Finite. None have workout gaps; none appear to have missed training. As for Finite, she could influence the pace, but her record suggests she is best as a one-turn closer. As the second choice in the program, Finite faces the same knock as Monomoy Girl – low odds.

Our Super Freak is the upset candidate, a stakes runner-up last out with an 87 Beyer. The figure is within five points of the recent Bayakoa par (92). Our Super Freak has speed to be forwardly placed. She is Grade 3-placed, therefore fits on class.

It would be crazy to predict Our Super Freak will defeat Monomoy Girl. But the potential reward justifies the risk. Our Super Freak at 6-1 is worth a win bet and “get your money back” saver exacta under Monomoy Girl.

Red-board review

The Feb. 21 selections in this space were top choice Implication and Kuramata in race 7 at Tampa Bay Downs. Implication finished third at 4-1, while Kuramata won at $3.80. In race 7 at Santa Anita, I suggested no bet. Bella Vita romped at $2.60; my reluctant top selection Hotitude finished sixth at 7-1. This week, in addition to the Bayakoa at Oaklawn, a maiden race at Santa Anita and an allowance at Golden Gate merit review.

Santa Anita, race 5

Three races before Fashionably Fast runs in the $100,000 Tiznow Stakes, a $50,000 maiden-claiming turf sprint includes the best bet on the Sunday card at Santa Anita.

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Capo Mafioso’s past performances look ordinary, fourth in a similar maiden-claiming turf sprint last out. But the race replay in Daily Racing Form’s Formulator offers more insight.

Capo Mafioso jumped at the dirt crossing, and jumped again when he reached the main turf course. Not a big deal, but things got worse into the turn.

Capo Mafioso found himself sandwiched in a tight spot. His rider took hold, and Capo Mafioso was shuffled to last. Rather than surrender, the gelding showed grit, re-rallied, and finished fourth. It was a tough trip, perhaps unnoticed except for the replay.

The knock against Capo Mafioso is his highest turf figure is a 63 Beyer, below the 74 par for the level. But now he switches to meet-leading rider Flavien Prat. DRF Formulator jockey-trainer stats reveal Prat and Richard Baltas are 14 for 47 in turf sprints the past five years. That’s a 30 percent win rate and flat-bet profit.

Although comeback droppers Ox Bridge and Chipper offer legitimate challenges, the play of the day Sunday at Santa Anita is Capo Mafioso in race 5.

Golden Gate, race 8

The bigger the field, the more likely a contender offers value, which is why this 11-runner allowance merits a look. Sometimes, even a favorite is appealing.

Tom’s Surprise was claimed from a sharp $16,000 win by trainer Jonathan Wong, who could have run him back in a $25,000 claiming race on Friday that had only five runners.

Instead, Wong runs him back in a big-field allowance from which he will not be claimed. It signals confidence. According to Formulator, Wong is 9 for 20 in allowance races, first off the claim.

The last-out figure earned by Tom’s Surprise, a 78 Beyer, is within five points of the N1X par, 82. The pace scenario suits his closing style. Tom’s Surprise, the 3-1 favorite by track linemaker Steve Martinelli, looks tough to beat as a low-odds overlay.