Free: Pick three play at Santa Anita for Saturday, Jan. 9

Bettors facing doubt this week over weather and track condition can welcome one certainty Saturday at Santa Anita – California Chrome will start as an underlay in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes.

Of course, California Chrome should win for reasons including class, speed, and pace. But an important ingredient is missing – current condition.

Notwithstanding his visually impressive blinkers-on workout one week ago at Santa Anita, California Chrome’s racing fitness is not quantified. A fast workout by a good horse does not guarantee peak performance following a layoff of more than nine months.

California Chrome has a right to be rusty. Besides, the $200,000 San Pasqual is only the starting point of a three-race campaign that will culminate in a $10 million race in Dubai. Even if he is able, California Chrome is not likely to be in top form for a prep race.

The potential vulnerability of odds-on California Chrome makes the pick three ending in the San Pasqual an appealing sequence (races 6-8) Saturday at Santa Anita.

Race 6

COLLECTED (9) enters the Grade 3 Sham Stakes for 3-year-olds as “most probable” winner on the card. The one-mile Sham is his first on dirt, but he worked fast over the surface and is drawn outside, where kickback is minimal.

Collected is a single on one ticket; another ticket will include three others. I’MALREADYTHERE (7) finished third last out in a Grade 1, despite an odd trip. A rider change to Rafael Bejarano and class drop to Grade 3 makes him a contender.

LET’S MEET IN RIO (3) stretched out and saved his best for last in a solid route win one month ago. He is getting good, adding Lasix, and will be finishing. LAOBAN (6) is expected to set the pace and therefore gets longshot consideration at 15-1. A small “saver” ticket will single Laoban and end with California Chrome.

Sham entrant DRESSED IN HERMES (2) might be a turf specialist. If that assumption is wrong, he can win. And if so, this bettor’s pick-three ticket will die early.

Race 7

GROUND RULES (3) could be bet down from his 9-2 program odds. That’s okay. The comebacker has worked well and is 2 for 2 returning from layoffs. Ground Rules is a single on the second ticket.

Three others are contenders. ROCKPORT KAT (5) is fast and should be among the pacesetters; JUST KIDDING (9) and FOLLOW ME CREV (6) are in form and will rally late.

This bettor will take a stand against program favorite MOTOWN MEN (2) despite good figures last year. Somewhere along the way, he lost his speed. When a good horse loses his speed, he becomes just a horse.

Race 8

CALIFORNIA CHROME (4) is the one to beat. But for reasons outlined above, the most likely winner is a bet-against at a short price.

Others in the San Pasqual are qualified. It is a “spread race,” leaving out the favorite on both main tickets.

The play will consist of three tickets, including a small “saver” that uses California Chrome.

The first pick three ticket will single race 6 favorite Collected; the second ticket will single race 7 contender Ground Rules. The San Pasqual is an “all” minus the favorite.

Three tickets ($60 total):

Ticket one ($28)

Race 6: 9

Race 7: 3, 5, 6, 9

Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Ticket two ($28)

Race 6: 3, 6, 7, 9

Race 7: 3

Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Ticket three ($4)

Race 6: 6

Race 7: 3, 5, 6, 9

Race 8: 8