Free: The only sure thing is there are no sure things

Uncertainty is everywhere, so it was only fitting the most heavily favored runners in graded stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds and Santa Anita offered horseplayers a blunt reminder – there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Finite looked like a cinch in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks based on six consecutive victories and speed figures in four straight races higher than the career-high figure of any rival. Finite, an apparent slam dunk, missed the layup. She finished fourth at 3-10.

She may have bounced off a career top last out, or was compromised by unspecified misfortune. Odds-on favorites only misfire that badly when something goes awry, like one year ago in the very same race. Serengeti Empress, 3-10 in the Fair Grounds Oaks, bled and was vanned off. In her next start, she won the Kentucky Oaks.

Finite has time to regroup. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the Kentucky Oaks has been postponed to Sept. 4. Who knows what the filly division will look like in fall?

The surprise Fair Ground Oaks winner was 6-1 Bonny South, whose trainer, Brad Cox, offered a candid assessment in post-race quotes to track publicity.

“I guess [Bonny South] is in the Kentucky Oaks, just have to figure out how to get to September 4,” Cox said. “That’s a long way off . . . just have to see how things play out.”

Cox and owner Juddmonte Farms are solemn witnesses to turnover. Their undefeated star filly Taraz was euthanized in February after being injured in a workout at Oaklawn Park.

Taraz and Bonny South were workmates last year from September through December, and Cox said Bonny South recently upped her game. “This filly has just stepped up immensely,” he said. “Even when we were walking up and handing her to the pony, we were like, ‘Wow, she looks like she is bigger and stronger.’”

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Bonny South earned an 85 Beyer, a career-best but still below those of standout fillies such as Venetian Harbor and Donna Veloce in California, and Tonalist’s Shape in Florida.

Nonetheless, deliberate improvement by Bonny South – each figure higher than the one before – hints she can be a major player as the season unfolds. Her ultimate ranking on the division hierarchy is as uncertain as the ever-changing stakes calendar.

Revised dates for the Oaks and Kentucky Derby will impact races such as the Grade 1 Alabama for fillies, traditionally contested in late August at Saratoga. That would be two weeks before the Oaks. Can a filly run in both races, two weeks apart? Not likely. The Grade 1 Cotillion in late September at Parx Racing would also be impacted.

Perhaps one could use the Alabama to prep for the Oaks, or the Oaks to prep for the Cotillion, or the Cotillion to prep for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Nov. 7. Same with colts –Travers, Derby, BC Classic, or all three? The muddled situation will remain unresolved until normalcy returns, whatever normal turns out to be post-coronavirus.

It was only 15 minutes after Finite misfired at Fair Grounds that another odds-on favorite returned at Santa Anita in a graded stakes race.

Bound for Nowhere looked like a cinch in the Grade 3 San Simeon. Consistently among the country’s top turf sprinters, with triple-digit figures his last three turf sprints, he was cranked for his comeback. Then the gates opened. Bound for Nowhere broke slowly, was squeezed, rushed and got worn down. He finished second at 1-2.

Compared to the off-the-board finish by Finite at Fair Grounds, the runner-up finish by Bound for Nowhere at Santa Anita was easy to accept. Finite disappointed, but Bound for Nowhere ran super. In fact, he ran a winning race.

More races are lost at the start than at any point in a race. Break slowly, and it’s over. At very least, it makes things tougher. When a horse breaks slowly, adjacent rivals tend to drift into the void left by the slow starter.

It happened to Bound for Nowhere. He broke a half-step slowly and was squeezed from both sides. The trouble caused him to break last. He zoomed the opening furlong and pressed two wide while Cistron, who broke perfectly, tucked in third on the rail.

The off-slow-rush-forward start by Bound for Nowhere turned out to be the difference. He kicked away briefly in the stretch, but perfect-tripper Cistron angled out and wore him down. Bound for Nowhere ran well. He also got beat by a very good horse.

Cistron began 2019 as a solid albeit unspectacular turf horse. When he switched to dirt, he emerged as the premier sprinter in California. A “tweaked back” ended his campaign in fall, the San Simeon was his first start back. Nice comeback, and a $10.80 win payoff.

With a clean start, odds-on Bound for Nowhere could have won the San Simeon. He ran well anyway, and should continue as a prominent turf sprinter wherever he runs.

Under a different scenario, Cistron might have finished second. No matter, his comeback was super. In just one start, he reemerged as the top West Coast sprinter on the same day that Bonny South emerged as a top filly in the Midwest.

But more than anything else that happened Saturday, losses by heavily favored Finite and Bound for Nowhere reminded that, no matter the odds, there really are no sure things.