Free: Might not need big money to hit pick six on Sunday

The pick six at Santa Anita is worth playing about once a month, on mandatory payout days such as Sunday.

On a non-mandatory payout days, less than 54 cents of each $1 wagered in the pick six is returned daily to bettors. That is what remains after the 23.68 percent takeout and 30 percent siphoned into the single-ticket jackpot.

The good news happens about once a month when Santa Anita grants bettors a reprieve with a mandatory payout. Sunday, the entire pool will be paid. Assuming no single-ticket winner Friday or Saturday, the jackpot should exceed $400,000.

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The jackpot is not “free money,” but it does soften the takeout bite. Roughly 90 cents of each $1 wagered Sunday will be paid to winning bettors. (Round numbers: $3 million pool, minus $700,000 takeout, plus $400,000 jackpot equals $2.7 million paid.)

The question Sunday – how high, or low, should a pick six bettor aim?

The 20-cent pick six covers races 4-9; the sequence is not compelling. A total of 40 runners entered the races; it would cost $16,128 to cover every combination.

Of course, betting “all” in every race is not reasonable. The mandatory payout May 16 generated a payoff of $267.20. Previous mandatory payouts produced payoffs of $741 (April 3), $2,014 (March 6), and $24,654 (Feb. 6).

Between the low and the high, perhaps there is a sweet spot. This Sunday, it appears even small tickets have a shot. The first leg of the sequence is at 2:30 p.m. Pacific.

Race 4 – Supersonic Flyer (#5) blew a four-length lead in a similar maiden-claiming sprint last out at 6 1/2 furlongs. The difference Sunday is distance. She shortens to six, and should set the pace. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Leonard Powell has won with 8 of his last 10 favorites in maiden-claiming dirt sprints.

However, the comeback by Bossy Soul (#2) was better than it looks. Void of speed in the California-bred special-weight turf sprint, Bossy Soul trailed, finished evenly, and galloped out super. The stretch-running dropper makes her second start back Sunday. Two deep: 2, 5.

Race 5 – Cinnte Winnte (#1) drops in class following troubled trips in special-weight races. She was bogged down in heavy traffic in her U.S. debut two back, and was compromised again next out. Pushed wide on the first turn, she uncorked a middle move and lost her punch. Cinnte Winnte should be tough at low odds for trainer Paddy Gallagher, who is 12 for 23 with favorites in maiden turf routes the past five years.

But the recent third here by Golden Journey (#8) was better than it looked. She was trapped inside and behind horses at the quarter pole, got stalled while the one-two finishers kicked, and finished evenly. The Formulator replay is worth review (May 16, race 4). Cinnte Winnte is a tempting single, but two-deep – 1, 8 – offers a chance to beat the chalk.

Race 6 – Ultimate Hy (#4) crushed a California-bred turf mile last out. However, this race is a California-bred dirt mile. Ultimate Hy’s low-profile sire has had six runners, and they are 0 for 16 on dirt. Her dam won five races on dirt and produced three dirt winners, but her best foals were turf specialists Tribalist and Ultimate Bango. Ultimate Hy, if she handles dirt and reproduces her 84 Beyer, probably will win.

Tiz Wonderfully (#3) is a consummate pro who has won five of her last six dirt routes at Santa Anita, including a facile $12.500 claiming win last out. The class hike from low claiming to California-bred N1X/optional claiming is not significant. Two deep: 3, 4.

Race 7 – Three-year-olds sprint six furlongs on turf in a $75,000 stakes, led by allowance winner Whatmakessammyrun (#1). The filly Missy P. (#3) has the highest dirt numbers and should handle turf based on pedigree, and Mohawk King (#4) ran well pressing the pace in his comeback and galloped out in front of Whatmakessammyrun. Three deep: 1, 3, 4.

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Race 8 – Six furlongs on dirt, starter allowance/optional $50,00 claiming, and Rayray (#6) is the one to beat dropping from allowance races. Habitual bridesmaid Box of Chocolates (#4) arrives from Oaklawn Park in top form for a trainer-jockey combo that is 7 for 11 the past three months. Box of Chocolates is 1 for 23, with 7 seconds and 4 thirds. Last-out winners Albizu (#7) and Winhappy (#1) make it four deep: 1, 4, 6, 7.

Race 9 – Who makes the lead in this entry-level allowance turf mile? Formulator replay of the U.S. debut (May 16, race 7) by hard-pulling Fantail (#2) suggests she will be given her head going sprint to route. To win, she must hold off the rally of Daily Racing Form horses to watch lister Hollywood Girl (#1). Two deep: 1,2.

It’s a $38.40 ticket: 2, 5 with 1, 8 with 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4 with 1, 4, 6, 7 with 1, 2.