Free: Mandatory payout pick six can be played on a budget
ARCADIA, Calif. – The pick six is fun again, temporarily, starting Sunday at Santa Anita and continuing for the next two weeks of daytime racing at Los Alamitos.
After that, all pick six bets are off. Personal preference, of course.
Sunday is closing day at Santa Anita and the pick-six jackpot will be paid in full with a carryover of $277,870.
Mandatory jackpot payouts mitigate takeout. Otherwise, the single-ticket pick six is the costliest bet in California racing. Less than 54 cents of each dollar wagered is returned daily to bettors.
Before looking at Santa Anita’s closing-day pick six, Los Alamitos deserves applause. Los Alamitos opens Friday for a two-week daytime meet. To its fan-friendly credit, Los Al has resisted unfriendly high-takeout jackpot wagers.
The $2 pick six at Los Alamitos is a 70-30 split – 70 percent to perfect tickets or carryover, 30 percent to consolations. Takeout is 23.68 percent, which certainly beats the 46-percent effective take for single-ticket jackpot wagers at Santa Anita and Del Mar.
The pick six is a 20-cent bet at Santa Anita and will be the same at Del Mar. Low minimums do not correlate to cost. Wager cost is the takeout. Sunday at Santa Anita, based on previous mandatory payouts, effective takeout should be about 10 percent. That’s manageable.
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It might also be manageable on mandatory payouts at Del Mar – the Pacific Classic card Aug. 21 and closing day Sept. 6. A long way off. Meantime, there is Los Alamitos to look forward to next week, and the pick six at Santa Anita to look forward to Sunday.
Race 6: Although low-level maiden-claiming races tend to be predictable, that is not the case in the opening leg, a $20,000 maiden-claiming sprint for fillies and mares. The field is grim, and pick-six bettors may need to go deep.
Favorites are 0 for 6 this meet in filly-mare maiden-20 sprints. None in this field deserve to be chalk; none earned a dirt figure within five points of the 58 Beyer par. Bettors could get bogged down trying to figure who is fastest. None are fast. In a spread race, this bettor will include Vanna (#3), My Tigress (#4), Sassy Chasey (#5), and Ricotta (#6).
Race 7: Restrainedvengence (#2), third in a Grade 1 last out, is the choice in this Grade 3 turf mile. The knock is his finish. Formulator allows handicappers to view closing fractions, and Restrainedvengence falls short. His final quarters this meet on turf – 24.31 seconds last out and 24.26 in March. Older stakes horses should crack 24 seconds.
Graded winner Neptune’s Storm (#3) has not run since September, and trainer Peter Miller does not always fire with turf-route comebackers off six months. But a small sample from Formulator indicates Miller wins when expectations are high – he is 2 for 5 at 5-2 or less.
A murky pace scenario might benefit presser Neptune’s Storm, though the course profile at a mile on turf (rails down) is friendlier to closers. Rails-down pacesetters are just 1 for 13 since the start of May. Another spread race? Majestic Eagle (#5) and Border Town (#4) have run well enough to include.
Race 8: At the Spa (#2) and Royal O’Haigain (#5) top this stakes race for 2-year-old fillies. Both were well-regarded into their respective odds-on debuts, and both won by open lengths. Perhaps a pick-six bettor could survive using only the two favorites.
Race 9: Warren’s Showtime (#5) continues to fire and continues to miss. She has finished in the money in six straight stakes without a win. But a review of race charts in Formulator shows one reason why, and suggest she can win this Grade 3 turf mile.
Warren’s Showtime is a pace-dependent closer who did not catch a break in any of her recent starts. Each of her last four were won by the pacesetter – Leggs Galore twice, Charmaine’s Mia twice. When the speed keeps going, closers merely pick up scraps.
This turf mile includes several starters with speed, and the rails-down profile mentioned earlier further boosts the chances of Warren’s Showtime. A single?
Race 10: First-time starter Sea Dreamer (#3) has worked fast for this maiden sprint. The past five years, according to Formulator, trainer Simon Callaghan and Flavien Prat are 6 for 14 with debut runners in dirt sprints. Sea Dreamer, by Into Mischief, looked strong in two recent workouts viewed at XBTV.com. A second single?
Race 11: Cal-bred fillies and mares sprint on turf. Gypsy Blu (#7) drops to allowance/optional $20,000 claiming after losing at odds-on in an open claiming race. Her main rival is blinkers-off Smiling Annie (#8).
Few pick-six players expect to win playing a $12.80 ticket. But closing day is mandatory payout day, and at least for now, the pick six is fun again.
The ticket: 3,4,5,6 with 2,3,4,5 with 2,5 with 5 with 3 with 7,8