Free: Mandatory payout pick six a bargain for bettors
Pick six bettors catch a break Sunday at Santa Anita. Though many players avoid the single-ticket jackpot wager due to its high effective takeout, mandatory payouts such as Sunday are the exception.
Less than 54 cents of each dollar bet on the pick six is returned daily to winning bettors. That is what remains after the 23.68 percent standard takeout and 30 percent of net siphoned into the single-ticket jackpot. Combined, effective takeout exceeds 46 percent.
Mandatory payouts mitigate takeout. Barring a single-ticket winner Friday or Saturday, the Sunday pick six will include a force-out jackpot of more than $500,000 plus Santa Anita’s estimate of $3.5 million or more in new money. Roughly 90 cents of each dollar wagered in the pick six will be returned to bettors. Effective takeout – 10 percent.
So yes, horseplayers catch a break Sunday, and those who enjoy maiden races are in luck. Four of the six races (4-9) are maiden races, including three maiden-claiming. The sequence also includes a maiden special weight dirt route, a claiming sprint, and an entry-level allowance turf sprint.
In terms of quality, the card is modest. In terms of value, Sunday is an opportunity to wager into a pick six with manageable effective takeout. The minimum bet is 20 cents.
Race 4
Predictable Tully (#7) and I Give Up (#6), a combined 0 for 27, top a $50,000 maiden-claiming turf mile for fillies and mares. Predictable Tully is distance challenged, but could make the lead. I Give Up is the best finisher; a runner-up in both recent starts.
After the favorites, the drop in ability is severe. Bettors might be reluctant to rely on 12- and 15-start maidens to survive the opening leg, but one of them should win. Two-deep (6, 7).
Race 5
Maiden-20s go long on dirt, and Big Well (#5) is logical off his recent second versus similar. However, Beyer par for this level is 67; Big Well’s top fig is just 56. As a guideline, horses qualify if they have run within five points of par. Big Well would be the first maiden-20 male this season to win having not met the speed-figure standard.
Stretch-outs By Moonlight (#4) and Salah (#7) are recommended inclusions. By Moonlight drops, stretches to a route, adds blinkers, and gets a weight break. Salah goes long off a pair of even-paced comeback sprints, and is the only one of the top three who has run to par. Will three deep get it done? Hope so (4, 5, 7).
Race 6
Maiden special weight 3-year-olds race a mile on dirt; Beyond Brilliant (#5) should make the lead on a surface that rewards speed – 15 of 32 dirt miles from March 19 through May 9 were won by the pacesetter. Trouble is, both Beyond Brilliant’s starts were turf sprints. He is fast. Who knows if he can run long? A nugget from DRF Formulator offers a clue: Trainer John Shirreffs won with 5 of his last 9 sprint-to-route maidens on dirt.
Bender (#6) was only prepping in his sprint debut. Sired by Curlin, he should like two turns. First-time starter American Admiral (#3) and second-timer Myopic (#4) give Bob Baffert a one-two punch. Trouble-prone Mr. Impossible (#2) stretches out; his siblings include graded route winners Harvest Moon and Californiagoldrush. Does one single Beyond Brilliant or go five deep? (5 or 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
Race 7
Fantail (#2) makes her U.S. debut with strong works. She is ready to fire in this entry-level allowance turf sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs. Trainer Richard Baltas is 2 for 26 with foreign imports the past five years, but Baltas and jockey Flavien Prat are 16 for 50 in turf sprints in the same time frame. Will side with the latter stat.
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Lofty (#7) is challenged by distance, but could be loose on the lead second start back. With the rails at 10 feet, pacesetters this meet are 1 for 8 at 6 1/2 furlongs. Ellerslie Lace (#6) makes her U.S. debut with interesting French form. Take a shot and single Fantail, or go three-deep? (2 or 2, 6, 7)
Race 8
Jan’s Reserve (#2) has not won a race in four years, yet he gets the call in this $10,000 claiming sprint based on a tough-trip fourth last out and wide-trip runner-up effort two back. Tobacco Road (#5) defeated similar last out; Studly Perfection (#1) has route speed but has never hit the board in a sprint; Indy Jones (#4) can fire fresh. Four-deep, fingers crossed (1, 2, 4, 5).
Race 9
The problem with Irish Aura (#5) and second preference New Drama (#7) is they employ similar front-running styles. That won’t help in this $50,000 maiden-claiming turf sprint. A pace duel would benefit Sweet Devil (#4) and also-eligible Hyland Haven (#13). Four-deep (4, 5, 7, 13)
Ticket strategy
A ticket that singles Beyond Brilliant in race 6 would cost $57.60, before scratches.
6, 7 with 4, 5, 7 with 5 with 2, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 5 with 4, 5, 7, 13
A ticket that singles Fantail in race 7 would cost $96, before scratches.
6, 7 with 4, 5, 7 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with 2 with 1, 2, 4, 5 with 4, 5, 7, 13