Free: Los Alamitos analysis for Sunday, July 14, 2019

BEST BET: Zip the Monkey (6th race)

First Race
1. A Royal Ace 2. Sharp Turn 3. Coil and Strike
Closing day at Los Alamitos, and A ROYAL ACE clearly the one to beat in this statebred maiden-50 for 2yo fillies. She finished four lengths clear of third last out, drew a cozy outside post here, and can win with a pressing trip. SHARP TURN faced a much tougher field eight days ago, and did not run poorly. She missed by less than nine lengths against a good group of state-bred special-weights. Now she drops to state-bred maiden-claiming and can improve with a race under her belt. COIL AND STRIKE was a well-bet disappointment finishing seventh in her debut at Pleasanton. Have to believe she is better than that race suggests.

Second Race
1. Champagne Honey 2. An Ocala Ten 3. Dramatic Ride
CHAMPAGNE HONEY set a blistering pace (:21.48 and :44.25) in her maiden win here two weeks ago at five furlongs. If she runs two alike while stretching out to five and a half, color her gone. The runner-up from that race, Lady Purissima, was scheduled to start favored Friday in race 4. AN OCALA TEN popped the gate in his comeback, went fast out front, and surrendered to finish last. That was his first start in nearly two years. Improvement likely on the class drop. Win or lose, he will keep the top choice honest. DRAMATIC RIDE arrives from Northern California in top form.

Third Race
1. Alfonso C 2. Impeachment Ace 3. Contratto
The sixth-place finish last out by ALFONSO C is the best recent daytime race by any this soft field of maiden-20s. He carries nine pounds less with an apprentice rider taking over, and looks best of a weak lot. IMPEACHMENT ACE tries the daytime program following a decent runner-up finish at night. He finished six lengths clear of third. This is the maiden's 20th career start. CONTRATTO broke slowly in his debut, and finished last. He might improve.

Fourth Race
1. We're Still Here 2. Ginobili 3. Silent Fury
Racing-seasoned 2-year-old WE'RE STILL HERE is the logical horse to beat in a field made up primarily of first-time starters. He ran well in his debut, runner-up by a nose. The knock is he had the length of the lane to finish the job, but went into neutral and did not put away his rivals even though he was on the advantageous outside. He did race three-wide while the winner had a rail trip (under pressure), so one could argue 'HERE ran better than the winner due to the ground loss. Regardless, the second-start maiden ran well, and worked a solid half from the gate since. GINOBILI debuts with solid works. Although maidens trained by Richard Baltas typically race their way into condition, this son of Munnings could be the exception. His training pattern is solid, including a pair of gate works at Santa Anita. A similar comment applies to SILENT FURY, a son of Violence and sibling to a pair of route stakes winners. His trainer Brian Koriner typically sends them fit. OLD TRAFFORD, the first foal from a dam that won her career debut, appears to have trained well. Inside post a tough draw for the rookie, however.

Fifth Race
1. Gas Can 2. Caprivi Strip 3. Muscle Head
This maiden-20 is the first leg of the closing-day pick six (mandatory payout). The race boils down to speedball GAS CAN and fast-working first-time time starter CAPRIVI STRIP. The call goes to GAS CAN, who went a blazing first quarter-mile last out in :21.82 and paid the price in the lane. He hit a wall at the eighth pole and tired to fourth. He shortens from five and one-half furlongs to five, and could be gone if he rations his speed. However, the recent 59-flat gate work by CAPRIVI STRIP suggests he is set to fire. All his works leading to his final drill eight days ago were relatively slow, but :59 is smoking. He is live first out, it appears. MUSCLE HEAD flashed improved speed second time out, while improving over his debut. From his post near the outside, he could get a cozy trip positioned just off the top pair. Upset candidate?

Sixth Race
1. Zip the Monkey 2. War Union 3. I'm Amore
ZIP THE MONKEY should win this restricted claiming route as the favorite. He has run well against better, and though all three starts following a two-year layoff were on synthetic and turf, he has run well on dirt. His figures tower over the field; the closer can reel in the speed. That is, unless WAR UNION steals it. Runner-up after setting the pace 10 days in a sprint, 'UNION stretches back to two turns and will lead the field as far as he can. His stamina probably is suspect at this one-mile trip, but speed is always dangerous. The 1-for-23 gelding looms the pace play. I'M AMORE ran the best race of his career (speed figure-wise) last out while finishing third in a dirt route at Pleasanton. He definitely has improved since moving to trainer Frank Lucarelli.

Seventh Race
1. Baby Ice 2. Tiz Toffee 3. Ruby Trust
A two-turn experiment last out by BABY ICE backfired when she broke slowly and finished next to last (four-horse field) as the favorite. Now she returns to her preferred sprint trip, has speed to stay in contact with the leaders, and can wear down the speed if she reproduces either of her two runner-up finishes behind Uno Trouble Maker. The best speed is TIZ TOFFEE, claimed from her second straight victory last out. She is comfortably drawn outside, figures for a front-running/pace-pressing trip in a field that is not exactly loaded with gas, and could easily win her third straight while making her first start off the claim by trainer Jonathan Wong. RUBY TRUST is sharp now, but six furlongs on dirt is something new for a turf specialist who has been running two turns. GIA LULA might be ranked too low by this handicapper; her spring form puts her in the hunt.

Eighth Race
1. Denman's Call 2. Rick's Dream 3. Fast Cotton
Notwithstanding a sporadic work pattern since his most recent start three months ago, DENMAN'S CALL might still be the right choice in this $20k claiming sprint. A Grade 1 winner in 2017, his races in winter at Santa Anita, including wins for $25k and $32k claiming, would be fast enough. He'll need pace assistance, because he is a closer racing just five furlongs. Meanwhile, RICK'S DREAM is in undeniably sharp form and does have speed. He trounced easier by more than six lengths last month, though there appears to be more pace in this field. He is trained by Hector Palma, who also entered FAST COTTON. The latter shortens to his preferred sprint distance after fading twice in routes. EXECUTIVE CAT is quick, but he broke slowly two of his last three starts. With a clean takeoff, he looms an upset candidate with a front-running/pace-pressing trip.

Ninth Race
1. Miss Maybell 2. Appolina 3. So Gucci
Although MISS MAYBELL is officially a "first-time starter," she apparently raced recently at Canyon Breeze Training Center in Utah. That was a five-furlong race June 22, against three rivals. She won by about four lengths while running the fastest final time of the three races that day at that distance. The race does not show up in her past performances because Canyon Breeze is an unrecognized racetrack. The filly shipped to Los Al afterward, posted a bullet half-mile local work eight days ago, drew the outside post, and meets a modest field of maiden-20s. Tab for a minor upset. APPOLINA is likely to go favored again, although she seems to have a case of the Lucky Dans ("that horse is gonna run second"). APPOLINA started four times, runner-up each time, while three or more lengths clear of third each time. One of these times, she will get it done. Could be this time. SO GUCCI has speed, and makes her first start since January.

Tenth Race
1. Love Your Life 2. Handsome John 3. Party Hostess
Sharp recent races in Northern California, speed for a pressing trip, proven form over the Los Alamitos racetrack and a winner 5 of his last 21 starts, LOVE YOUR LIFE is the one to beat in the final race of the meet. 'LIFE did not have the greatest of trips last out at Golden Gate, under pressure every step after breaking from the rail. Now he moves to an outside post (6 of 9), shortens to five furlongs and figures for an in-the-clear trip just off the pace. HANDSOME JOHN won a similar restricted claiming race last out at this abbreviated five-furlong distance. Back-to-back? PARTY HOSTESS will rally late in a race likely to unfold at a legit pace. A mare facing colts and geldings, she won last time out at five and a half. The challenge is getting up at this shorter distance. Look for her late. That is a wrap for Los Alamitos, opening day at Del Mar is Wednesday.