Free: Kentucky Derby analysis

1. Irish War Cry

2. Practical Joke

3. Gormley

4. McCraken

IRISH WAR CRY enters in top form and with the field’s top speed figures. He has an up-front running style, and recent Derby winners have been forwardly placed. Irish War Cry has won four of five starts and established his class by winning graded stakes at two tracks. Lots to like. His impressive victory last out in the Wood Memorial was the result of a perfect trip, which is expected. He usually gets a perfect trip due to his running style.

Like every entrant, Irish War Cry is not perfect. His come-home time in the Wood Memorial was slow, and the field was modest. But so what? Irish War Cry, the only entrant with two 100-plus Beyer Speed Figures (Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park), is likely to be forwardly positioned just off the speed. Irish War Cry is favorably drawn in post 17; he will be in attack position at the top of the long Churchill Downs stretch. The gamble is that he will keep on running.

PRACTICAL JOKE has been a division leader since winning two Grade 1 races last summer around one turn. Though winless around two turns, his routes were creditable – a third in the Breeders’ Cup and runner-up finishes this year in routes at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland. His upward pattern is deliberate. This is his third start following a layoff, and he should deliver a career best if he can stay 1 1/4 miles. The distance challenge applies to the entire field.

GORMLEY, a 4-for-6 multiple Grade 1 winner, is one of several top contenders with ordinary speed figures, including a low-rated win last out in the Santa Anita Derby. He compensates for modest figures with class and pluck. He runs best when he races in the clear, but he also can take dirt rallying from behind. His trainer and jockey are Derby winners, and his double-digit price is appealing. Look for him late.

MCCRAKEN faces questions regarding class but reportedly is training like a beast over a Churchill Downs track on which he is 3 for 3. His third-place finish last out at Keeneland was merely a prep for this. He will roll from behind.

Classic Empire is the “best horse.” But after a championship campaign at 2, his 3-year-old campaign has been a roller coaster. He scored a workmanlike win three weeks ago in the Arkansas Derby, which in essence was his first “real” race since winning the BC Juvenile five months ago. It is uncertain if he has sufficient racing foundation.

Gunnevera will fly late. Always Dreaming romped in the Florida Derby and enters as a legitimate threat racing near the front. Irap, the upset Blue Grass Stakes winner, is getting good at the right time. Battle of Midway finished a creditable second in the Santa Anita Derby while under pressure from start to finish.