Free: How will post position influence the Kentucky Derby?

Yes, post position influences the Kentucky Derby, and so does pace.

But estimating the degree of influence is no easy task. While basic considerations of condition, class, and speed figures are pre-race tangibles, the effect of post and pace are uncertain until after both gates open. The main gate is posts 1-14; auxiliary gate 15-20.

Horses that break from inside posts are more likely to be shuffled back, as the middle- and outside-post runners gravitate toward the inside. Front-runners and pressers that are drawn inside must step on the gas early in order to establish or maintain position.

For the 2017 Derby, the inside draw of two front-runners in particular increases the likelihood the race will unfold at a legitimate tempo. The longshot Fast and Accurate (post 3) has no option but to go. He will have company, because co-second favorite Always Dreaming (5) also must use his speed.

That means at least two horses from posts 1-5 are likely to produce speed, in addition to pace-pressers Thunder Snow (2) and State of Honor (6). Thunder Snow, from Dubai, can either utilize speed or go passive and chance being shuffled. His European jockey is less likely to send.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

State of Honor, however, begins with most of the field to his outside. State of Honor must produce speed to insure position. That makes four early runners that are candidates to create pace.

Other front-runners/pressers are drawn farther outside, where they have options. None are need-the-lead types. Irap (9), Battle of Midway (11), Irish War Cry (17) and Gormley (18) should be forwardly placed.

To speculate where every starter will be positioned early requires knowing factors that are unknowable. Who will break slowly, and what strategy will be employed? For example, Battle of Midway ran well setting the pace last out, yet his connections have indicated he will ration his speed. Who will stumble at the start? Who will get shut off?

Those are crystal-ball factors. They are likely to occur, but to whom and to what extent?

Outside posts recently have been productive, but the trend is deceptive. The post-15 wins by American Pharoah (2015) and Orb (2013) did not occur because of post. Both colts won because they happened to the best horse, on that day, in that race. Same with Nyquist (2016) from post 14, and I’ll Have Another (2012) from post 19.

The post-position draw this year compromised Always Dreaming, and increases the likelihood the race will unfold at a strong tempo due to several inside runners with speed. With that in mind, here is a post-position look at the field, from the inside out. (Trainer quotes were provided by the Churchill Downs publicity department.)

1-Lookin At Lee: The inside post is not a major issue for a deep closer that will drop out early and fly late. The most recent Derby winner from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986.

However, trainer Steve Asmussen was not thrilled with the inside draw. “I didn't want the one hole, but if any horse can handle the one hole in the Kentucky Derby, it’s Lookin At Lee,” he said.

2-Thunder Snow: Not a good post for the Dubai shipper. He must be sent, a strategy that is not beneficial with speed to his outside, or be shuffled. Either way, he is up against it.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor adopts the glass-half-full sentiment regarding post 2: “We’re happy with that. We need to be handy in the race. The horse has a good turn of foot and he can be there and kick readily and that is the plan.”

3-Fast and Accurate: His owner said the colt will try for the lead, despite a host of front-runners/pressers to his outside. Though his chance to win is minimal, his presence may transform this year’s Derby into a race that unfolds at a faster pace than usual.

4-Untrapped: His midfield style is less likely to be influenced by post. He has tactical speed to establish position, and could tuck into a good trip saving ground midpack.

Asmussen, his trainer, might have been okay with post 4 for Untrapped, except for the horse next door. “With Untrapped, the four is a bit of a concern because Always Dreaming is just to his outside and he'll probably be the pace horse,” Asmussen said.

5-Always Dreaming: His up-front strategy was cemented by the inside draw. And it could go either way – a comfortable pace-pressing trip, or a pace-setting trip under severe pressure. For bettors that like Always Dreaming, the draw is worrisome. But is it reason to abandon ship? Tough call.

Trainer Todd Pletcher said this about post 5: “It’s fine. Ideally, I’d have liked to have been a little farther out, but he won the Florida Derby from the four, so that says something. In the end, we’re good with it.”

6-State of Honor: He must use speed to maintain position, putting the horse to his inside under pressure. Not sure if State of Honor is good enough, but this draw could be okay depending on strategy employed by those to his outside.

Trainer Mark Casse on post 6 for State of Honor: “I love having State of Honor right outside Always Dreaming (who drew post five).”

7-Girvin: Post position is a non-factor for this late-runner. His foot issues and accompanying training interruptions are the concerns.

Trainer Joe Sharp on post 7 for Girvin: “That would have been the post position I would have hand-picked if we were still doing it that way. We’re happy with it. I guess with it being a 20-horse field, it’s all the trip anyway and he’s run well inside before. I’d rather have a little less distance to travel than some of the others.”

8-Hence: A deep closer, he is unaffected by the draw.

9-Irap: This is a good post for the pace-presser, depending on how much pressure is applied by others to his outside.

The ever-optimistic trainer Doug O’Neill on post 9: “Just about perfect. We wanted the 10, but nine is next best. The way they load them – one and 11, two and 12 – we wanted to stand in there the least amount of time. But this is next best. We’re very happy with it.”

10-Gunnevera: A deep closer, he is unaffected by the draw.

11-Battle of Midway: Good post for a colt likely to be forwardly placed, notwithstanding statements to the contrary.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer on post 11: “We like our post quite a bit. It’s right in the middle. I need to study the (Daily Racing) Form and talk to Flavien (Prat) before we make a basic plan but it’s a rider’s race and we’ll see what happens.”

12-Sonneteer: A deep closer, he is unaffected by the draw.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux concurred: “He is just going to drop out to the back anyway.”

13-J Boys Echo: His closing style is not likely to be influenced by post.

Trainer Dale Romans: “Thirteen is a lucky number. It’s a good spot to be in. We just didn’t want the one or 20 post. We have horses on both sides of us so, if given the option, we couldn’t have hand picked a better spot.”

14-Classic Empire: The outside post in the main gate is of no consequence. Probably a good draw for the morning-line favorite, who is expected to rally from behind.

Trainer Mark Casse on post 14 for Classic Empire: “It’s a good spot. A couple of key contenders are outside of us, which is kind of nice.”

15-McCraken: Good post for the closer, even if a defection would move him to the main gate. The strategy is to take him back and make a run. An outside draw is fine.

Trainer Ian Wilkes on post 15 for McCraken: “It is a very good draw. … We have a good spot because there is that small gap between the main gate and the auxiliary gate.”

16-Tapwrit: His closing style is not likely to be influenced by post.

Pletcher on post 16 for Tapwrit: “Love the post for him. He’ll do fine from there. That’s been a good starting spot in the past. We’re glad to have it.” (Four horses have won the Kentucky Derby from post 16 – Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999) and Thunder Gulch (1995).

17-Irish War Cry: This is an advantageous post for the presser, who can race in the clear with sufficient opportunity to tuck in and save ground on the first turn. Four of the last six Derby winners broke from the auxiliary gate.

Trainer Graham Motion, who won the 2011 Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom, talked about Irish War Cry’s post. “Animal Kingdom was 16, so I can’t be disappointed with 17. It can be done from out there. I’m happy enough with it.”

18-Gormley: No worries from this outside draw. He has tactical speed and he can rally.

However, trainer John Shirreffs offered a different take on post 18 for Gormley: “We wanted to be in the main gate (one through 14), but what are you going to do. We’ve got a very experienced rider (Victor Espinoza) and he’ll know what to do out there.”

19-Practical Joke: Another contender drawn outside, he is unaffected by post. Recent Kentucky Derby winners have shown that an outside draw is not a handicap.

And yet, trainer Chad Brown was not pleased. “I’m disappointed with the draw,” Brown said. “Nineteen is obviously not where we want to be but we’ll just have to work out a trip from there.”

20-Patch: He is missing his left eye, yet he rallied outside runners in both his recent routes.

Pletcher on post 20 for Patch: “We’re OK with it. There’s nothing outside to bother him, so that’s good. He’s been a good gate horse and I don’t see any problems.