Free: How I'll play Santa Anita on Sunday, Oct. 30

ARCADIA, Calif. – The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines the word “dilemma” as “a situation in which you have to make a difficult choice.” The choices are not that difficult Sunday at Santa Anita.

Cut might win race 1, a one-mile turf race for maidens. However, he has never raced on grass, nor has he run beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. As a 2-1 favorite, the choice is easy. Cut is a pass.

Race 3 has six starters. Small fields have small prices. Frac Candy has factors in his favor, including being a first-time gelding, first off the claim by a top trainer, and returning in a claiming race while ineligible to be claimed via California Horse Racing Board rule 1634. But at 3-1, Frac Candy offers no value. It’s a pass.

Race 4 is a pass; it is too tough. Race 5 includes Nextdoorneighbor at odds-on, another pass. Perhaps race 6 will offer value if Sense of Glory starts at 9-2 while stretching out for the first time. If he gets bet down, pass. Twentytwentyvision is favored in race 8. A low-odds dropper is often an underlay, so he is a pass. And so is Thunder Basin at 7-2 in race 9.

The choices are not difficult Sunday at Santa Anita. The seven races above are pass races.

Horseplayers, including this writer, occasionally refer to “parimutuel dilemma.” But it is only a dilemma if the choice is difficult. Much of the time, it is black and white. A bettor either likes a horse at the price offered or not. That is not a dilemma. It is common sense.

On Sunday in races 2 and 7, a common-sense favorite is followed by a longshot bomber.

Kenzou’s Rhythm should win race 2, a maiden-claiming route for 2-year-olds. The bred-to-route gelding stretches out following an improved effort first off the claim by Phil D’Amato. His rivals are slow.

Kenzou’s Rhythm is listed at 9-5. He is worth backing at 8-5. If his odds drop, it’s a pass.

Madiba probably will not win race 7. Most of the time, horses listed at 20-1 in the program lose. But occasionally, they surprise.

Madiba broke slowly and finished a creditable third last out in his return from a layoff of nearly five months. He probably needed the start. That was a $50,000 claiming race. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer “protects” the colt by running him back in a second-level allowance from which Madiba cannot be claimed. That signals optimism.

Madiba was cut out to be a good one. Sired by Candy Ride, with a good female family, he cost $700,000 at auction. Once upon a time, expectations were high. The 4-year-old colt might finally be coming back around. He showed potential early in his career.

His main rivals are solid. St. Joe Bay is a legit favorite returning to dirt. Avanti Bello often earns 90-plus Beyer Speed Figures that would bury the field. They are obvious. Madiba is not obvious.

The pace should be legitimate. Madiba should be outrun early. He should be flying late in his second start back. Madiba probably will not win. But he has a chance to outrun his price.

At 20-1 or higher, it is not a dilemma. It is a bet.

The choices Sunday are not tough – Kenzou’s Rhythm at 8-5 or higher in race 2 and Madiba at 20-1 or higher in race 7.