Free: How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, Jan. 22

Weather forecasters have been surprisingly accurate during this wet winter in Southern California. If the forecast is right once again, the Santa Anita card on Sunday will be run in the rain.

The debut of Paradise Woods in race 4 is a potential highlight, although filly faces legitimate rivals that have an experience edge. They are the program favorite Princess Julia, runner-up last out, and Kenda, s better-than-looked fourth in her debut.

Paradise Woods was sired by Union Rags, and a sibling to stakes winner Forest Chatter. According to trainer Richard Mandella, and based on outstanding workouts under jockey Flavien Prat, Paradise Woods will fire first time out. The knock is she is listed in the program at a mere 7-2, and could go down.

While it tempting to support the “live” first-timer, Paradise Woods’s low odds suggest race 4 is a better race to watch than wager.

Race 5, however, includes a 7-2 shot worth backing. The six-furlong race is a new twist to Santa Anita racing program. The track lowered the bottom claiming level from $8,000 to $6,250.

Madelyn’s Wild Max, a 9-for-31 pro who has lost seven straight, is one of the most probable winners on the card, based largely on his most recent start for $8,000 claiming. He finished eighth of 12, but never had a fair chance.

Madelyn’s Wild Max was not asked for speed, and raced in traffic much of the race. He was shuffled on the turn, blocked behind runners in the lane, his rider took hold, and the gelding offered only a mild rally. The video is worth viewing: Santa Anita, Jan. 2, race 9.

It is possible that Madelyn’s Wild Max has developed a “pack mentality.” Maybe he prefers to run alongside other horses, rather than run past other horses. The answer will come Sunday, likely over a surface similar to the “good” track on which he raced last out.

Others in the $6,250 claiming race are suspect, including program favorite Aikau. His best races are at shorter distances; he might find six furlongs out of reach.

On a Sunday card likely to be run in the rain, a win bet on Madelyn’s Wild Max in race 5 is the only play worth making, at 3-1 or higher.