Free: How I'll play Santa Anita on Sunday, Feb. 22
ARCADIA, Calif. – Based on quality and quantity, the racing Sunday at Santa Anita is modest. Therefore, a conservative strategy is recommended. If Sunday turns out to be a winning day, it will not be enough to brag about. If Sunday is a losing day, losses will be minimal. Below is how this handicapper plans to play.
Races 1-2
MAGNA WARRIOR (3) is the program favorite in race 1. However, and unfortunately, W. GILES (5) is likely to start favored in this claiming sprint for 4-year-olds. The pace scenario favors W. Giles, whose rivals are not quick.
A key trainer change is another reason W. Giles should run well. He was claimed last out by Phil D’Amato, whose 20 percent win rate is among the circuit leaders. W. Giles is likely to improve for a new stable and at a shorter six-furlong distance than he tried last time.
W. Giles, expected to starter lower than his 5-2 morning line, will be the first half of a “cold” daily double using just one horse in each race.
Race 2 is a maiden-$20K route. As most know, maiden-$20Ks at Santa Anita have been the most predictable class of the winter – favorites have won 11 of 20. Here’s hoping the “predictable” trend continues because the second half of the double will use a logical contender.
PRIVATE MARINA (8) is a 10-start maiden, but her only route at Santa Anita was the best race of her career. It was 17 days ago, when she pressed a fast pace over a track that produced very slow times and finished third.
It was a terrific third-place finish by Private Marina, listed in the program as the co-second choice at 5-2. The program favorite is FIFTYSHADESOFFUN (5), who stretches out following only one sprint prep.
So, the early action Sunday is simple – a cold double using a pair of 5-2s. They are W. Giles (5) in the opener to Private Marina (8) in the second. If it hits, it might pay a whopping $15. Otherwise, it’s a $2 loss.
Race 5
This 6 1/2-furlong sprint attracted a good field of 3-year-old maidens, including top choice Z BESHA (8). A full brother to top-class sprinter Judy the Beauty, Z Besha ran well in his debut, closing ground from behind a fast pace to finish a promising third.
But there’s a problem backing Z Besha at a short price. The 5-2 favorite was flattered by the pace. His “rally” might have been an optical illusion. The leaders were stopping.
Although this handicapper picked Z Besha as the “most likely” winner, there is enough doubt to suggest that 5-2 is too short on a maiden with no speed whose debut Beyer was a 63.
If the morning line holds, the value is elsewhere. Those include fast-working first-time starter KETOS (1) at 4-1, along with second-time starters COMMUTE (4) at 8-1 and MILHAUD (12) at 12-1.