Free: How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, April 30

ARCADIA, Calif. – It is fun to beat the favorite. But that is just the half of it. A bettor also needs an alternative.

Races 1, 3, and 7 Sunday at Santa Anita include both – potentially suspect favorites, and logical alternatives. That is the Sunday theme of this handicapper’s planned strategy – a daily double on races 1-2, a pick three on races 1-3, and a straight win bet in race 7.

Race 1
Program favorite SILENT MOVIES is dubious, though he ran super last out finishing second after setting a hot pace in a restricted claiming turf route. The rails were 30 feet; the horse that chased the pace, Red Car Mac, held third. The “race shape” flattered Silent Movies.

That probably will not happen Sunday, with the rails down at a higher class (starter allow) while facing lots of other speed.

The strategy is to toss the favorite, and include three others in the daily double, at higher odds. EL SUPER was a first-time gelding last out. He set a strong pace and tired, first start in two months. He should improve, if able to avoid a pace duel. El Super is 4-1.

RAINBOW SQUALL is a reach at 8-1, first time Flavien Prat, second time turf route. CRAFTY COWBOY blasted maiden-claiming sprinters by more than five lengths last out. He earned a good number; his pedigree has sufficient turf influence to endorse the surface switch. His jockey Rafael Bejarano is gaining momentum; Crafty Cowboy is 8-1

The double will use Crafty Cowboy, Rainbow Squall, and El Super.

Race 2
LOB CITY seems like a standout in this five-runner field. She is 8-5, and might be headed lower. She is a daily double “single.”

Race 3

ST. RENO is favored in this $16,000 claiming sprint, non-winners of three. His best race is faster than the others. The knocks are he is being managed as if his connections want him to be claimed, and he has an underachieving history (beaten favorite twice). His main rival should be lapped on him.

That is EL TOVAR, 3-1 second choice in the program and top choice by this handicapper. His comeback last month was decent; he has enough speed to keep the favorite within range.

El Tovar is not a standout, merely a solid alternative to the chalk. El Tovar will anchor the pick three.

Race 7
Program favorite CANDY RULER ran well in her debut in a similar Cal-bred maiden sprint. She broke slowly, and rallied to third. Good race. She must improve to win. She might do just that. Can’t knock the filly, but can knock her 3-1 price. She may go lower.

LI'L GRAZEN is 4-1, and worth a straight win bet at 7-2 or higher in her first start since a solid third in November. She produced more speed last fall than Candy Ruler did last month. In the five months since Li’l Grazen ran, you’d have to believe she has improved.

The Sunday plan:
$4 double (races 1-2) = $12
Race 1: Crafty Cowboy (2), Rainbow Squall (3) and El Super (4)
Race 2: Lob City (5)

$2 pick three (races 1-3) = $6
Race 1: Crafty Cowboy (2), Rainbow Squall (3) and El Super (4)
Race 2: Lob City (5)
Race 3: Li’l Grazen (6)

Win (race 7) = $12
Race 7: Li’l Grazen (6)

Total investment = $30