Free: How I'll play Santa Anita for Saturday, June 3
ARCADIA, Calif. – Reasonable wagering opportunities are in short supply Saturday at Santa Anita, where field-size struggles continue.
Average field size this meet is 7.39 (through Thursday). Dirt races, which account for nearly two-thirds of the racing, average 7.04. The numbers will decline after Saturday’s nine-race card, which drew 60 entrants before scratches.
What is a bettor to do? One tactic is to play defensively, which goes against the mindset of winning bettors. A bettor that plays with the objective to “not lose” runs the same risk as a football team that plays “prevent defense.”
“The only thing the prevent defense does is prevent you from winning,” Hall of Fame football coach John Madden said.
It’s an oversimplification that does not apply in every game. But it almost always applies to wagering on horses. Bettors that play it safe, and cash frequently by backing low-odds runners, are less likely to win long-term than bettors that cash less often backing runners whose high odds are disproportionate to their true chances. It’s called an overlay.
The problem is that overlays seldom occur in small fields, and there are plenty of those Saturday at Santa Anita, including a three-horse Grade 1 in which the odds-on favorite might be a cinch.
STELLAR WIND is 3-5 over VALE DORI and FINEST CITY in race 8, the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. Stellar Wind should win, but her program odds represent zero value.
Race 7 is the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, with only seven entered. But it might offer overlay potential, due to perceived vulnerability of the program favorite, and a bomber that could sneak into the trifecta.
HEART TO HEART is the favorite, and arguably the “best horse.” Runner-up last out in a Grade 1 Keeneland, he has won 12 races and $1.1 million, tops in the field. But this is his third try at Santa Anita. His first two were duds.
Heart to Heart shipped west in late 2014, was favored in the Grade 3 Mathis Brothers Mile, and finished off the board. Heart to Heart shipped west in spring 2016, was odds-on in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, and finished off the board.
Perhaps the third time will be the charm. Or maybe Heart to Heart simply does not like California.
WHAT A VIEW does like Santa Anita, with six wins and three seconds from 10 starts over the course. His fast-pace win two weeks ago in a Cal-bred stakes stamps him the one to beat and most likely winner. He is 3-1 second choice.
FARHEEN in late April ran the fastest turf mile at Santa Anita since Tourist won the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall. Farhaan rallied from last, and won going away in 1:33.18. If pacesetter What a View stops, Farhaan can win the Shoemaker as 4-1 third choice.
As for the 30-1 bomber, GANGSTER is a reach. He is eligible to the second allowance condition and unproven against legitimate stakes competition.
But with his closing style, he will be out of the way. He will pick up the pieces.
Heart to Heart could misfire again. BAL a BALI does not always run to expectations. FREE ROSE might need a prep race; BOLO'S rider Mike Smith abandoned him for Bal a Bal.
It is not entirely crazy to envision a scenario in which Gangster hits the board. If he does, and the favorite runs out, the trifecta payoff could reach $100. It’s a $10 play, keying Gangster to finish third.
$1 trifecta
What a View (2) and Farhaan (4) with “all” with Gangster (6)
