Free: How I'll play Santa Anita on Saturday, June 17

ARCADIA, Calif. – Santa Anita could get lost in the shuffle on Saturday. Although the card ends with an appealing pick three on races 8-10, Santa Anita might have a hard time competing with Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs.

Gulfstream Park is expected to have a million-dollar pick-six jackpot on Saturday, a mandatory payout day. Even bettors who do not typically wager on Gulfstream Park are obliged to take a shot, assuming there is no single-ticket winner on Friday.

Churchill Downs runs an evening card on Saturday with five stakes, including the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap. Gun Runner, the country’s best older horse not named Arrogate, could pick up where he left off. Or maybe the only Canadian-bred in the field will upset.

In between jackpot mania at Gulfstream and the stakes extravaganza at Churchill, Santa Anita offers a pair of Grade 2 routes for 3-year-old fillies. The undefeated Sircat Sally is heavily favored in race 6, the Honeymoon Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on turf. Race 9 is the Summertime Oaks at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. “Wide open” is an understatement.

Below are the Saturday plays for this California handicapper. Out-of-town action is followed by a late pick three at Santa Anita.

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GULFSTREAM PARK, PICK SIX, races 6-11

Gulfstream improved the quality compared to the last high-profile mandatory payout on April 2, when the pick-six sequence was dreadful – three maiden-claiming races, two low-level claiming races on turf, and one turf allowance.

The sequence is better Saturday: a maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies, a pair of $10,000 claiming races on turf, a maiden-claiming dirt sprint, a $6,250 claiming dirt sprint, and a $100,000 turf stakes race. Below is this handicapper’s general outline.

Race 6: Go Astray (6) is fast and experienced; first-time starter Crazy for Sofia (2) has worked well. A 12-1 must-use is Holy Diver (8), who lost all chance at the break in her debut, made a big middle move and went flat. She may have more speed than it appears.

Race 7: Schettino (1), It’s a Given (3), Vedelago (8) and Golden Point (9) are logical.

Race 8: Dardo (1) should win if he does not lose his action as he did in his runner-up debut. His trouble was self-caused and cost him the win. The question is, how much can you trust a maiden running for a $10,000 claiming tag?

Race 9: Deep spread, as many as possible.

Race 10: Deep spread, as many as possible.

Race 11: Enterprising (3) looks like a low-odds standout, but 20-1 outsider My Point Exactly (4) will be on this handicapper’s ticket based on his winning habit, good figures, and giant price.

CHURCHILL DOWNS, GRADE 1 FOSTER, race 8

Gun Runner (3) might win as the favorite, but an 8-1 shot has been on this handicapper’s personal “horses to watch” list since he was eliminated last month in a Grade 2 over a sloppy track at Churchill.

Breaking Lucky (2) runs best when forwardly placed. That did not happen in the Alysheba Stakes. He was shuffled back soon after the start and lost all chance when he steadied into the first turn. He also may not have handled the going; it was his second misfire on “wet.”

Breaking Lucky finished second in the Grade 1 Clark last fall at Churchill and missed by only a neck last summer in a blanket-finish Grade 1 at Saratoga. When he runs his top race, Breaking Lucky earns Beyer Speed Figures in the 104-106 range. That is fast enough to merit a gamble in the Foster.

Breaking Lucky is a win bet at 6-1 or higher, along with a saver exacta of Gun Runner over Breaking Lucky.

SANTA ANITA, PICK THREE (races 8-10)

The original plan was to single race-7 favorite Specimen in a pick four. But maiden-$20K sprints recently have been less reliable than normal, though the last two were won by the odds-on Cupids Beau and Red Carpet Cat.

Since Dec. 26, maiden-$20K sprint favorites are only 4 for 18; six winners paid in the teens. That’s good for bettors able to find a longshot. This bettor could not find one. Specimen should win. The knocks are recent maiden-$20K chalk stats and Specimen’s 12 losses. He is a “herd” animal. Therefore, the pick four is a pass. It is on to the pick three.

Race 8

HAY DUDE (5) and SKY PREACHER (3) are solid in this starter allowance on turf. Both have sharp recent races and winning connections. COUNTY LINEMAN (6) is in form; WOOD MACHINE (9) will rally late. Wood Machine’s rider, Gary Stevens, is the leading percentage rider at this meet on turf (27 percent, 10 for 36). That is four deep.

Race 9

It is risky to leave Bob Baffert runners out of a stakes race; his last eight stakes runners produced seven wins and one second. For the sake of value, this pick-three ticket will not include either Baffert-trained Summertime Oaks entrant, Faypien or Noted and Quoted.

The ticket will include top choice IT TIZ WELL (3), who is fresh and training well; SELCOURT (5), first time long; and smashing maiden winner MAJESTIC QUALITY (7). That is three deep.

Race 10

OREGON (6) had bad trips recently; he is the top choice in this maiden special weight turf route. KOPITAR (2) is a first-time gelding going long for the first time. MEMBER STATE (11) makes his U.S. debut with interesting European form. That is three deep.

The ticket ($1 wager = $36 total)
Race 8: Sky Preacher, Hay Dude, County Lineman, Wood Machine (3, 5, 6, 9)
Race 9: It Tiz Well, Selcourt, Majestic Quality (3, 5, 7)
Race 10: Kopitar, Oregon, Member State (2, 6, 11)