Free: How I'll play Del Mar on Saturday, Nov. 26

DEL MAR, Calif. – Don’t you love “hype horses?”

You know the kind. Some touts are fast-working maidens with big pedigrees. Others are second-start maidens with ability. Most have winning connections. Touts are fun. Who doesn’t like to watch good horses run fast?

The 2-year-old filly division in Southern California this year has overflowed with well-hyped touts, including another who returns Saturday at Del Mar. Unique Bella is the 7-5 program favorite in race 7. Perhaps she cannot lose.

Fast works? Check. Her last four workouts at Santa Anita were the fastest of the day.

Pedigree? Check. Unique Bella, sired by Tapit, is the first runner produced by 2010 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Unrivaled Belle.

Ability? Check. She finished second in her career debut five months ago, earning a 73 Beyer Speed Figure that is outstanding for a 2-year-old in June.

Winning connections? Check. Unique Bella is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; she will be ridden by Mike Smith.

Yes, it all looks good for Unique Bella, whose reputation grew as the year unfolded. Except for Shane’s Girlfriend, the California 2-year-old fillies are modest. Despite inexperience, Unique Bella has been called the top filly in the West. She probably will win Saturday at a short price.

But would it be a surprise if she lost? Not for anyone paying attention.

Excluding statebreds, Southern California has had 20 maiden special weight sprints this year for juvenile fillies, including 11 with an odds-on favorite. Eight times, the odds-on favorite lost.

Tap It All finished second three times at odds-on – May 12, June 19, and July 1 at Santa Anita. Unique Bella was odds-on in her debut June 23. Adorable finished second at odds-on in her second start July 23 at Del Mar. Jeweled lost twice at odds-on, her July 31 debut and her second start Aug. 28. Spooky Woods lost her second start Oct. 28, another odds-on miss.

That’s a long list. Only three won at odds-on – Noted and Quoted ($2.80) on Aug. 17 and Life’s Blessings ($3.40) on Aug. 27, both at Del Mar, and Jilly on Oct. 28 at Santa Anita. Three favorites won at higher odds – American Gal ($4.80) on Aug. 14 at Del Mar, La Vitesse ($4.20) on Sept. 23 at Los Alamitos, and Go On Mary ($7.60) on Nov. 12 at Del Mar.

The total – favorites this season are 6 for 20 in maiden special weight sprints for 2-year-old fillies and 6 for 11 since August.

Perhaps the tide has turned. When things even out, statisticians refer to it as “regression to the mean.” Perhaps now the favorites are on a win streak.

Most everyone, including this handicapper, expects Unique Bella to win her comeback in race 7 on Saturday. Or maybe years-old advice from a veteran horseplayer applies. To borrow his line – if Unique Bella wins at a short price and you did not bet, did you really miss anything?