Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, May 31
ARCADIA, Calif. – A common mistake horseplayers make is betting too many races. That will not happen on a bland card Sunday at Santa Anita, with small fields and legitimate favorites. It’s the type of card that might justify passing entirely.
For the sake of action, I plan a small double that links races 2-3, followed by a pair of “action” win bets. It begins with a maiden-claiming standout and ends with five turf sprinters in the $75,000 Siren Lure Stakes.
Race 2 favorite GOLD JOURNEY (#4, 8-5) had a brutal trip last out in her first try at the $20,000 maiden-claiming bottom. She broke from the rail, which is not necessarily a kiss of death. But what happened into and through the turn was a nightmare.
Gold Journey got stuck inside behind an 87-1 shot whom everyone knew would back up. Everyone that is, except the rider on Gold Journey. He stayed inside, and the longshot backed up. What a surprise. Gold Journey was blocked, shuffled, and lost position. She went from two lengths off the pace in fifth position to six lengths off the pace in eighth.
It was an impossible trip for a maiden-$20K. But rather than surrender, Gold Journey re-rallied. She passed all but the winner, finished clear of third, and probably was best. Gold Journey gets off the rail Sunday. After five straight in-the-money finishes, she is sitting on a maiden win. Gold Journey is a single in the first half of the double.
Race 3 is the Siren Lure Stakes, a turf sprint with five starters. I will use two in the second half of the double.
PURE TACTICS (#5, 2-1) employed the wrong strategy last out. Though he is best chasing a target, for some reason he engaged early. Pure Tactics hooked Sweet Swap, they sped five clear, and both backed up. Pure Tactics switches riders Sunday and is likely to sit second behind the speed.
Pure Tactics is the most probable winner, this time from off the pace.
But the horse to catch is OLIVER’S TALE (#2, 2-1). He is 2 for 2 on the hill and, though untested in stakes, could be loose. I will use the front-runner and the presser in the double. If program favorite HOLY LUTE (#1, 9-5) wins, I lose.
The bet is a $2 double from GOLD JOURNEY (4) in race 2 to OLIVER’S TALE (2) and PURE TACTICS (5) in race 3. Total cost: $4.
Two high-odds contenders later might be worth action win bets.
Race 5 is a restricted $8,000 claiming race that includes VEGAS STREET (#4, 12-1). He makes his first start for hot trainer Ricky Agarie, with proven form over the track and numbers last year that put him in the hunt.
In race 8, a N3X dirt mile, LITTLE JERRY (#6, 8-1) drops from a Grade 3 turf race to an N3X dirt mile for another hot trainer, Richard Baltas. The gelding’s style goes against a track profile that favors speed, but he will roll late at a price.
The Santa Anita card Sunday is bland. It warrants the prudent strategy outlined above.