Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, May 15
ARCADIA, Calif. – The wickedly fast Lucky Folie might emerge as star of the show Sunday at Santa Anita, but the program includes wagering opportunities more appealing than the $75,000 Angel’s Flight Stakes for 3-year-old sprint fillies.
Specifically, races 1, 4, and 6 include legitimate contenders at tempting prices.
Race 1 is a maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares. If odds-on favorite TRYST (1) repeats her runner-up debut, the race is over. However, Tryst is dubious. She is a 4-year-old making just her second start; older maidens are notoriously unreliable. She also drew the rail, not a deal-breaker, but it is a challenge. Tryst also lost her debut at odds-on.
The fastest in the field, Tryst is “supposed to” win. But another second-time starter whose debut Beyer Speed Figure was 24 points lower than the favorite has an upset chance. SUGARY (5) was well bet in her debut at 2.90-1. She broke slowly, trailed the field, picked up steam in the lane, finished with run for third, and galloped out in front.
Sugary, a 3-year-old getting a five-pound break from the favorite and leaving from an outside post, is certain to improve. The second-most-likely winner, she might be the best bet. Sugary is listed at 5-1; anything less is a pass.
Race 4 is a California-bred N1X turf sprint. If SEEDSANDSTEMSAGAIN (5) repeats either of his two recent starts, this race is over. However, he is an imperfect favorite. He has not started in two months due to a scratch April 8 when a turf race moved to dirt. Secondly, his previous turf sprint was a front-running win Feb. 12 during a week when the hillside course was quick and speed-conducive.
Circumstances have changed. The downhill course has slowed, and speed is less favorable. It might not matter. Seedsandstemsagain might be ready to fire off a two-month break, and he does not necessarily require the lead. But 8-5 program odds seem low.
LINDANTE (6) is the upset candidate at 12-1. He raced evenly and split the field in his comeback from a 10-month layoff. He’s worked sharply since, including a bullet half-mile just a few days ago. He has won on the hill and has a history of outrunning his odds. Lindante is a bet at 9-1 or higher.
Race 6, a N2X/optional $62,500 claiming race at 1 1/8 miles on turf, includes one of the most probable winners on the card. HOBBITS HERO (5), who has won two straight, should be loose on the lead. So, what’s the knock?
First, this was not the race to which trainer Richard Baltas was aiming Hobbits Hero. But when a $50,000 claiming race did not fill, the N2X/optional was the only alternative, unfortunately at 1 1/8 miles. Hobbits Hero began his career as a sprinter; he has not won beyond a mile. Hobbits Hero “should” win, but his 5-2 program price does not justify the risk that he won’t be able to carry his speed this far.
LIFE’S JOURNEY (1) looms as the upset candidate. For him, 1 1/8 miles could be too short. But he ran well last time, finishing third in a Grade 3 marathon, and his best figures put him in the hunt. Jockey Kent Desormeaux entered Saturday having won with four of his last eight turf mounts.
Hobbits Hero could wire the field as the logical favorite. But the stretch runner Life’s Journey will be coming at him late at higher odds.
The expectation on Sunday is for Lucky Folie to burst into the 3-year-old filly picture by winning the Angel’s Flight, race 8. By then, three longshots will have delivered or sputtered. At overlay odds, all three are worth backing to win – Sugary in race 1, Lindante in race 4, and Life’s Journey in race 6.