Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Sunday, March 22

Formulating “how-to” strategy for an entire program is similar to preliminary analysis of an individual race. It’s called the process of elimination.

More than half the races Sunday at Santa Anita can be eliminated from consideration. They are virtually unplayable due to field size. In small fields, value is rare.

Five of nine races Sunday fall into the “small-field-minimal-value” category – 1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 (average field size, 6.5). Multi-race bettors can tolerate an occasional small field. They will have to Sunday. Meanwhile, the focus begins with big fields – 4, 6, 8 and 9.

After field size, comes actual analysis. In the race with the biggest field, analysis is sketchy. A dozen California-bred maidens go 6 1/2 furlongs on the hill. It’s race 4.

Race 4

HAZARDOUS DREAMS (1) might win. He is the 7-2 favorite with a habit of breaking slowly. He has broken slowly in three of four starts. Good luck to him. STYLISTIC (10) might win. She is a 5-year-old mare making her first start since August while facing colts and geldings. Good luck to her. After that, it’s guesswork.

GARRAPATA BEACH (3) is interesting at 12-1. He is a second-time starter, first-time gelding with good works. But it would only be a guess. Perhaps there is a bomber in this scramble. Wish I could find it. I cannot. The biggest field Sunday is a pass race. Call it lack of creativity.

Race 6

Vladimir Cerin is a streaky trainer. When he gets hot, it can be a good idea to string along. Cerin is hot. Through Friday, he had won with four of his last 10 starters. Cerin entered KERRILYN (6) in this turf sprint, for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares.

Kerrilyn finished third in her comeback. It was not a good comeback. But she makes her second start off the bench, switches to a turf course on which she scored her last win, and gets Rafael Bejarano to replace sidelined Corey Nakatani. Kerrilyn is likely to improve, and at 3-1 or higher she will be a focus. Less than 3-1 is a pass.

Race 8

BIRDLOVER (1) is a standout. She also is the 5-2 favorite in this N3X turf route for fillies and mares. In a nine-runner field, her price is likely to stay at that number. She is sharp, figures for a front-running/pace-pressing trip from the rail, proven at or about the class level, with speed figures that support her role as the chalk. I won’t bet against her.

Race 9

The card comes to an end with a second-start maiden that is worth wagering on if she starts at 3-1 or higher. POCKETFULLOFGREEN (10) set a wild pace first time out. She led into the lane and tired. That maiden-50 has produced three next-out winners; POCKETFULLOFGREEN drops in class and drew the outside. She might not need the lead. She earned a pace figure first out that is superior. High pace figures often translate to high ability with maidens. And her odds are good enough.

Kerrilyn (race 6) at 3-1, Birdlover (race 8) at 5-2, and Pocketfullofgreen (race 9) at 3-1 are how-to keys Sunday. Obvious from the prices, the betting will be conservative.

Maybe a late double, Birdlover to Pocketfullofgreen.