Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, March 13
ARCADIA, Calif. – Three recommendations Sunday at Santa Anita include two overlays and one favorite who could have a big season in the female sprint division.
Race 3
Dressed in Hermes is the class of the field in the $75,000 Pasadena Stakes, a one-mile turf race for 3-year-olds. A Grade 3 winner last year and the most probable winner of the Pasadena, he is the 4-5 program favorite. That is an underlay.
The second-most-probable winner is 6-1. He is worth a play at that price. It’s The Ice ran better than it looked in his U.S. debut, a runner-up finish in a first-level allowance. He improved in his second U.S. start, setting a fast pace before he tired to third.
The gelding needs to harness his speed to have a chance Sunday, and if he does, he could wire the field. There is no other pace. Make no mistake – Dressed in Hermes could blow right past, but the discrepancy in price makes It’s The Ice the best gamble.
Race 5
Wild At Heart returns from an 11-month layoff as the favorite in this first-level allowance for filly-and-mare sprinters. Expectations are high for the filly, who flashed potential last winter and returns with solid comeback works.
Although her 2-1 program odds offer minimal value, Wild At Heart could jump directly into the stakes ranks if she delivers as expected on Sunday. From a betting perspective, her price is no bargain. She could be fun to watch develop this spring.
Race 7
My Ole Bud could be loose on the lead in this $12,500 claiming sprint, non-winners of two. He wired maiden-$20Ks last out, setting a fast pace, and is realistically spotted Sunday for his first against winners. He is front-end value at 5-1.
The longshot plays are It’s The Ice in race 3 and My Ole Bud in race 7. A good filly making her comeback at a short price is Wild At Heart in race 5.