Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, June 19
ARCADIA, Calif. – A bettor could throw caution to the wind and dive headfirst into the Sunday card at Santa Anita. That is one strategy. Another approach is to heed the signals from Santa Anita and tread lightly.
Sunday is the last day before the Santa Anita turf course is replaced. If the course were perfect, it would not require replacing. But the course is not perfect, and four grass races Sunday will be the final races on this version of the Santa Anita turf.
Interestingly, although the course has been labeled “uneven,” form has held surprisingly well. Favorites at this meet have won 37 percent of the turf routes (18 for 49). That statistic bodes well for race-6 favorite Cover Song and race-8 contender Stays in Vegas, listed as the second choice in the Honeymoon Stakes but a candidate to go favored.
The second signal from Santa Anita regards weather and post time. The temperature is expected to top 100 degrees on Sunday. As a precaution, Santa Anita moved first post Sunday to noon Pacific.
The effect of hot weather is difficult to measure. It certainly will affect some horses more than others, but which is which? In a sport that already has much built-in unpredictability, triple-digit temperatures in the middle of June invite more potential chaos.
The point is that Sunday’s nine-race card will be run under conditions that are less than ideal. Therefore, the total outlay is minimal – a pair of daily-double wagers for a grand total of $10.
Races 5-6
Race 5 is a $40,000 maiden-claiming sprint with four logical contenders – comeback speedster Yes Master (1), come-from-behind program favorite Spanish Hombre (5), first-time gelding and dropper Rideo (7), and front-runner Storm the Shore (8).
The daily double will use the four listed above and key a lightly raced filly facing winners and trying two turns in race 6.
Cover Song (1) has an attractive pedigree. She was sired by international stallion Fastnet Rock and is the first runner produced by multiple Group 1 winner Misty For Me. Beyond her bloodlines, Cover Song also has ability.
She won her turf-sprint comeback in stylish fashion, has worked well since, is bred for a mile, and should get a good trip saving ground while forwardly placed. Cover Song is listed at 7-2.
The bet
$2 double ($8 total):
Race 5: Yes Master (1), Spanish Hombre (5), Rideo (7), and Storm the Shore (8)
Race 6: Cover Song (1)
Races 8-9
The Grade 2 Honeymoon Stakes for 3-year-old fillies is race 8, topped by Stays in Vegas (3). She won all three starts on grass, including her comeback in the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes. Stays in Vegas has tactical speed, does not require the lead, and can finish. Expect her odds to decline from 4-1.
Race 9 drew a motley cast of $20,000 maiden-claiming sprinters, including many without speed. It’s a weak race and a good spot for a new face. Bundesliga (13) was scratched June 5; the gray son of Concord Point posted a sharp work since. He won’t need to be a world beater to handle this group first time out as the 7-2 program favorite.
The bet
$2 double ($2 total):
Race 8: Stays in Vegas (3)
Race 9: Bundesliga (13)
That’s it for Sunday. The worst-case scenario is a $10 loss. The best-case scenario, based on program odds, is a $50-$60 win if Cover Song, Stays in Vegas, and Bundesliga deliver in races 6, 8, and 9.