Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, Jan. 4

ARCADIA, Calif. – Action will be limited Sunday at Santa Anita. If there are overlays in the early races, they are tough to find. But there is an apparent low-odds standout in race 3, a first-level allowance for 3-year-old fillies at one mile, and at least one longshot later in the card.

Race 3 favorite ALL STAR BUB (6) was purchased privately since her big maiden win in October. She will make her first start Sunday since being transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer. The front-runner looks like the controlling speed and a favorite I will not try to beat.

All Star Bub is 2-1 in the field of seven and, on paper, a total standout. If she stays at her morning line, a straight bet is in order. At that price, she would be a low-odds overlay.

The best betting race Sunday is the Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes, a turf sprint for fillies and mares. The logical contenders are HEAT TRAP (4), VELVET MESQUITE (12), and WISHING GATE (7).

But a potential overlay lurks inside. SHRINKING VIOLET (1) has won 5 of 8 on turf; her trainer, Wesley Ward, and West Coast assistant Blake Heap have had much success shipping into California. Her numbers are good (mid-90s Beyers).

Shrinking Violet is 12-1, returning to her preferred surface (grass), with a running style that could lead to a cozy trip right behind the speed. At her morning line or higher, she is worth backing to win and in exactas with the logicals.