Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, Jan. 3
ARCADIA, Calif. – The idea is to wager on horses who have a greater chance than their odds. The trouble is that the betting market "prices” horses with uncanny accuracy. The public usually gets it right.
Horses who start at 4-5 win slightly less than half the time; horses who start at 8-5 win about one in three. Overlays are rare in the lower odds range. But in the higher odds range, mistakes do happen, like a 20-1 shot who should be closer to 12-1, or a 6-1 shot who should be 4-1.
On Sunday at Santa Anita, there is one of each. The likelihood is that both will lose. But their chances are greater than their odds. A longshot in race 7 and a lower-odds contender in race 8 will anchor this handicapper’s plan of attack.
Race 7
The Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes offers appeal. A large field of 12 fillies and mares sprint 6 1/2 furlongs on turf, and few can be eliminated. The favorites are the multiple stakes winners AGELESS and SHRINKING VIOLET. The knock is price. Ageless is 3-1, and Shrinking Violet is 4-1. Value is limited.
Meanwhile, a 20-1 longshot lurks. MY YEAR IS A DAY is not proven against graded company in the U.S. But her 2014 form in France was commendable, and her three U.S. starts were possibly better than they looked.
A spring 2015 comeback by My Year Is a Day in a Grade 3 at Churchill Downs followed an eight-month layoff. The race shape worked against her. The winner led gate to wire, while the closers merely ran around the course. My Year Is a Day finished fifth.
Two months later in a stakes at Monmouth, the same thing happened. The winner led gate to wire, and My Year Is a Day ran around the course and finished fifth again. That was it for her summer campaign.
My Year Is a Day was sent to California and transferred to trainer Phil D’Amato. Her comeback in a five-furlong turf-sprint allowance was merely a prep race, won by stablemate Sunday Rules. My Year is a Day ran well. She got banged around at the break, finished with run, and galloped out with energy past the wire. It was the ideal prep race.
On Sunday at Santa Anita, My Year Is a Day makes her second start while stretching out to 6 1/2 furlongs. She should deliver the best race of her career. Maybe it will not be good enough. But the filly enters as a contender who probably should be 12-1. My Year Is a Day is listed at 20-1. She is the most appealing longshot on the card.
Race 8
The odds are lower in this main-track sprint, a California-bred first-level allowance. LAMBO LUXX misfired on turf last out, but his main-track form is solid. His last three sprints on the Santa Anita dirt produced two upset wins ($16.20 and $24.60) and one runner-up finish. He has a history of outrunning his odds.
Lambo Luxx figures for a good trip Sunday, positioned second or third behind kamikaze speedster W. Giles. If and when that one falters, Lambo Luxx could get first run. His odds probably should be about 4-1. At his morning line of 6-1, Lambo Luxx is a straight play.
Strategy
In race 7, My Year Is a Day is worth betting to win at 15-1 or higher and in exacta boxes with the favorites. In race 8, Lambo Luxx is worth betting to win at 5-1 or higher. Finally, on the remote possibility that both will deliver, a daily double from My Year Is a Day in race 7 to Lambo Luxx in race 8 would put one in position for a tidy score.