Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, Jan. 25

ARCADIA, Calif. – It looks like a chalky start to the Sunday card at Santa Anita. I will not try to force otherwise.

Perhaps you’d have to be nuts to back a six-start maiden, but when Opsec gets back on turf in race 2, my money will be on the older maiden returning to preferred footing. Opsec is a 4-year-old, and by now, he should have won at least one race. But he was compromised by a brutal trip when finishing third in his most recent start on turf, followed by a creditable runner-up finish on dirt.

On Sunday in race 2, a one-mile turf race, Opsec is sitting on a maiden win. No bargain as the 5-2 second choice, but it’s a small field (seven entered). Opsec will be a single. He’ll have to reel in the front-running favorite, Alamo.

Opsec is trained by Bob Baffert, whose meet has been slow. Baffert entered the weekend 4 for 35. Baffert has another “likely winner” in race 4. I won’t try to beat him, either.

The Man finished third in his debut at six furlongs, a fast-paced race in which he faded late. He stretches out to seven furlongs Sunday, figures to clear the field, and should be gone as the 9-5 program favorite.

Favorites early make way for higher-odds contenders later. Aperfectdaytofly slides to the bottom in race 7, a $12,500 claiming sprint for non-winners of two. His recent form is okay, and the drop makes sense. He is 6-1 in the program and will offer value if bettors take the bait on suspicious dropper El Vaguro, the favorite.

The featured race is race 8, the $75,000 Clocker’s Corner at 6 1/2 furlongs on the hill. Sweet Swap is the 7-2 favorite and the horse to beat, but 15-1 outsider Clubhouse Ride should improve in his second start back, and 9-2 Hay Dude shortens to a sprint after a big runner-up finish at one mile.

Race 8 will be a “spread,” trying to beat the favorite while using Clubhouse Ride and Hay Dude.