Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, Jan. 24
ARCADIA, Calif. – A weather forecast calling for the possibility of showers Saturday evening casts uncertainty on three grass races Sunday at Santa Anita.
Here’s hoping for a postponement of the rain because overlay possibilities exist in each turf race – a route for 3-year-olds and two downhill sprints. It might be time to dive in.
Race 4 is a one-mile turf race for 3-year-olds, non-winners other than. Danzing Candy, the program favorite, is entered for the main track only. Barring a surface switch, he will scratch. That leaves Arabian Leopard as an apparent standout.
Arabian Leopard was tons best when finishing third in his most recent start in a stakes. He broke last, trailed by many, and made up more than 10 lengths to miss by only 1 1/2 lengths. Arabian Leopard looks tough to beat Sunday, at least on paper.
However, a second option at higher odds makes his U.S. debut. It’s The Ice raced three times last year in England, with a win and two seconds while finishing in front of 26 runners.
He is now trained by Phil D’Amato, who entered the weekend as the leading trainer at the meet. The questions for D’Amato and It’s The Ice – is the gelding ready to fire, and is he good enough for a first-level U.S. allowance?
“I think so,” D’Amato said regarding fitness. “And I think he’s of this quality.”
It’s The Ice is listed at 8-1; the up-front running style he employed overseas has played well on the Santa Anita turf. The rails are at the outermost 30-foot setting.
Arabian Leopard is a proper favorite and the most likely winner. But an exacta to It’s The Ice and a win bet on It’s The Ice are warranted.
Race 7 offers a similar scenario – a likely winner and a live longshot. Rocket Heat is the speed of the field. With the rails up, he could be gone.
Rocket Heat is 7-2, which is an attractive price for a favorite. As for the longshot, Ocho Ocho Ocho is listed at 8-1. He is likely to improve a ton.
Ocho Ocho Ocho pressed the pace and faded in his comeback route race. He was a better horse coming out of the race than he was going in. The race woke him up, according to trainer Jim Cassidy. His workouts since then support the idea.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is not fast enough to catch Rocket Heat, at least on paper. But improving horses always are dangerous, and Ocho Ocho Ocho is improving. He might sneak into the exacta, if not upset outright.
Rocket Heat is a proper favorite and the most likely winner. But an exacta to Ocho Ocho Ocho and a win bet on Ocho Ocho Ocho are warranted.
Race 9 is a turnback play. Odisseia set fast fractions and tired in two recent turf routes. She cuts back to a sprint and catches a field without pace. Listed at 4-1, she could be gone.
If the rains arrive and the turf races move to dirt, all bets are off. Otherwise, the Sunday card includes potential overlays in all three grass races – It’s The Ice in race 4, Ocho Ocho Ocho in race 7, and Odisseia in race 9.