Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Sunday, Feb. 14

ARCADIA, Calif. – Wagering strategy Sunday at Santa Anita is simple and stubborn.

It is simple because the only plays are inexpensive doubles that cost $8 and $2. The strategy is stubborn because the first double will not include the best horse on the entire program – race-3 favorite Prospect Park.

The Monday card has minimal wagering appeal, therefore potential downside will be limited. The wagers are $2 daily doubles on races 2-3 and races 7-8.

Races 2-3

Doug O’Neill trains the principals in race 2, a maiden turf sprint down the hill – front-runner RIM NICK and closer ARCHAEO, the program favorite. The double will use those two.

RIM NICK ran super first out. He dueled on a hot pace and tired. Second out, he broke slowly, steadied early, and made no impact. The race was a toss. The switch to turf should be okay. Two of the six winners by new sire J P’s Gusto were on turf.

ARCHAEO is a seven-start maiden whose best races were his two starts on this hill. He inexplicably dueled for the lead last time and tired; he might prefer a waiting ride.

Race 3 is an allowance route in which graded winner PROSPECT PARK is the 6-5 favorite. Based on his form last year and sharp works this year, he can win. But this is a prep race for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap on March 12. Take short price on a prep? Nope.

FOLLOW ME CREV seeks his fourth straight after a solid N2X victory in which he ran the same time (1:43.39) as California Chrome ran in a Grade 2 a half-hour later. MIDNIGHT HAWK dueled and faded in his comeback, but has worked well since. He should improve.

The bet

$2 double ($8 total):

Race 2: Rim Nick (8) and Archaeo (3)
Race 3: Follow Me Crev (4) and Midnight Hawk (5)

Races 7-8

This double is merely for action. Race-7 favorite PERFECT SET won a fast-paced $50,000 claiming route last time, and because he ran for a low tag last year remains eligible to this $16,000 claiming starter. Perfect Set is the 5-2 favorite.

SWIFT LADY is the favorite and the speed of the Sweet Life Stakes (race 8), racing over the downhill course on which she scored an impressive allowance win last out. Slam dunk?

The bet

$2 double ($2 total):

Race 7: Perfect Set (1)
Race 8: Swift Lady (8)

There will be no jackpots for this bettor on Sunday at Santa Anita. Nor will it be a parimutuel disaster. The worst-case scenario is a $10 loss, with something to cheer for.