Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, Dec. 27
ARCADIA, Calif. – If the morning line holds true in race 2 Sunday at Santa Anita, the $75,000 Blue Norther Stakes will offer simultaneous appeal – a low-odds overlay and a favorite to bet against.
Two-year-old fillies race a mile on turf in the Blue Norther, and if there is a bigger cinch on the card than the 5-2 second choice FAMILY MEETING, that horse is not obvious.
As for the 2-1 favorite in the Blue Norther, perhaps MIRAGE finally will run to her advance press clippings. Three starts into her U.S. campaign, it has not happened yet.
Three races Sunday – 2, 5, and 6 – are attractive. In addition to Family Meeting in race 2, a frontrunner that starts for a $40,000 claiming tag could be long gone at overlay odds in race 5. And in race 6, a blinkers-on, route-to-sprint gelding could outrun his price.
Race 2 contender Family Meeting was a 37-1 bomber one month ago when she made her California debut in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes at Del Mar. She won by only a half-length in a race that was more impressive visually than it looks on paper.
Family Meeting broke slowly from an outside post, lost ground into the lane, and stormed home powerfully. Bettors who missed her at 37-1 might be reluctant to take her at 5-2 Sunday. But from this perspective, the filly stands out.
As for program favorite Mirage, she has not improved in three U.S. starts. Third in a stakes in October, followed by a troubled eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she finished fourth behind Family Meeting in the Jimmy Durante.
Though Mirage did encounter trouble in the Jimmy Durante, the extent of her trouble is a matter of opinion. It is this handicapper’s belief that Mirage never would have defeated the winner. And Mirage is not likely to defeat Family Meeting on Sunday, either.
At 5-2 in the program, Family Meeting qualifies as a low-odds overlay.
Race 5, a $40,000 claiming turf sprint, is clear cut. CITY OF VENGEANCE will either shake loose and wire the field or hit a wall and finish nowhere. At 6-1 in the program, the gamble is he will be long gone.
The challenge facing City of Vengeance, who seems quicker than pace rival Incline Village, is course profile. Going into the meet, it is a mystery. There have been no turf works since the course was re-sod and no indications if speed will hold or if closers will dominate.
Race 6 includes a “live” 8-1 longshot. ALPINE LUCK has been off since early November. He runs well fresh, adds blinkers, and has enough speed to be forwardly placed behind the speed.
How to play Sunday at Santa Anita? It’s easy. Three horses are worth betting to win – low-odds overlay Family Meeting in race 2, generous-odds frontrunner City of Vengeance in race 5, and high-odds contender Alpine Luck in race 6.
Win or lose Sunday, the action resumes Wednesday at Santa Anita.