Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Sunday, April 3
ARCADIA, Calif. – Field size is dreadfully short early Sunday at Santa Anita – the first six races average 6.8 per race. It’s always tough to find wagering value in small fields.
Fields are bigger later. The problem is that two standouts are blatantly obvious. Beach Patrol is the 2-1 favorite in race 7, a first-level turf allowance for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles. Beach Patrol crushed a maiden race last out by nearly four lengths.
One potential knock is that the maiden win was over a course listed “good.” The turf will be firm Sunday, as jockey Joe Talamo replaces the suspended Rafael Bejarano. (Bejarano is allowed to ride race 8, the Grade 3 Tokyo City). Despite a different course condition and a new jockey, Beach Patrol should win the allowance.
It’s a personal choice whether to back Beach Patrol at 2-1, but this handicapper will not bet against him.
A similar underlay emerges in race 9, a maiden race for California-breds in which Rocket Fuel is the 5-2 favorite. His odds could drop because his runner-up debut was outstanding.
Rocket Fuel pressed a solid pace, finished nine clear of third, and earned a creditable 73 Beyer Speed Figure. He shortens Sunday from 6 1/2 furlongs to six, is drawn outside, and enters as the most probable winner on the card. Again, one does not have to bet on Rocket Fuel at low odds. However, it might not be wise to bet against him either.
What is the bottom line? Beach Patrol and Rocket Heat enter as standouts in races 7 and 9.
Meanwhile, two potential overlays could emerge Sunday in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Mor Spirit is listed at 12-1, which is an appealing price for a Bob Baffert trainee who will be the first or second betting choice April 9 in the Santa Anita Derby. If he runs as well as expected, he is likely to be one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. At 10-1 or higher in the KDFW on Sunday, Mor Spirit is worth a play.
A second potential overlay is No. 24, “all others.” All others closed at 11.40-1 in the final KDFW pool last year. It was a decent price, albeit a losing bet. Assuming similar odds this year, No. 24 is attractive. (This is being written prior to the Florida Derby.)
No. 24 would include every horse running Saturday in the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, including Kasseopia and Airoforce.
No. 24 would include a handful of longshot runners being considered for the Santa Anita Derby – Iron Rob, Denman’s Call, Smokey Image, Uncle Lino, and Trinitas Soldier.
No. 24 would include a handful being considered for the Wood Memorial on April 9 at Aqueduct – My Man Sam, Adventist, Cards of Stone, Cadeyrn, and Tale of S’avall.
No. 24 would include those under consideration for the Blue Grass on April 9 at Keeneland – Brody’s Cause, American Dubai, Donegal Moon, Hint of Roses, Laoban, Pinson, Star Hill, Twizz, and Vorticity.
No. 24 would include a host of runners expected for the Lexington Stakes on April 16 at Keeneland.
Perhaps a late developer is out there somewhere, ready to jump into the Derby picture. A wager on No. 24 is a wager on chaos. At double-digit odds with nearly five weeks until the Kentucky Derby, a lot can happen.
Assuming 10-1 or higher, the KDFW plays are Mor Spirit and No. 24.