Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, Sept. 26
ARCADIA, Calif. – Bettors probably cannot wait to double their money banging a daily double on races 7-8 on Saturday at Santa Anita, right?
Wow, the $2 double from Beholder to Songbird might actually pay $4.
That is the problem with big days such as Saturday at Santa Anita, where five Grade 1 races are scheduled. The racing will be top class. The gambling is a different story. It is tough to find value when the favorites “can’t lose.”
Beholder is 2-5 to win the Zenyatta Stakes for a third time; the 2-year-old filly Songbird is 3-5 to remain undefeated when she stretches out in the Chandelier Stakes. It will be a surprise if either gets beat.
Those are not the only slam dunks. The juvenile filly Sudden Fame debuts in race 2 with a series of sharp workouts. “She might run pretty good the first time,” trainer Richard Mandella said. There goes the value. She is listed at 2-1, and going down.
Next is Curlin’s Fox in race 3. She is 9-5 to win the Unzip Me Stakes over a downhill course on which she won both previous starts. The filly does have a history of bleeding, but that seems under control.
Nyquist is unbeaten in three starts and is 6-5 to win the FrontRunner, race 5. If his rival Mt Veeder scratches for a race next weekend at Keeneland, Nyquist could go odds-on. He probably will win.
Bayern is lone speed in the Awesome Again, race 10. He should be gone, another favorite on a day of favorites.
Perhaps the only Grade 1 that offers win-bet value is the Rodeo Drive, race 9. The favorite, Hard Not to Like, has won five straight on “firm,” but 1 1/4 miles is uncharted territory. It’s a long way also for Fanticola, but lone speed is lone speed. Fanticola is 5-1.
What can a bettor do on a day when the chalk is solid? One strategy is to focus on the vertical exotics. That is what this handicapper plans in two Grade 1 races.
Beholder should win the Zenyatta, race 7. But the second and third choices, both Grade 1 winners, are vulnerable. Warren’s Veneda could be short in her comeback. My Sweet Addiction runs best when setting slow fractions. That might not happen.
Meanwhile, the 20-1 outsider Kyriaki has found a new lease on life. She won a N1X at 11-1, followed by a N2X at 28-1. She is not good enough on class, but she is sharp.
The play will be: Beholder over Kyriaki in the exacta; Beholder over “all” over Kyriaki in the trifecta. If all nine start, the $1 trifecta is $7. For the sake of simplicity, the one-way exacta can be played also for $7.
Songbird should win the Chandelier, race 8. A bomber lurks in the form of Halo Darlin. She is listed at 12-1; that price could go higher since her debut Beyer Speed Figure was a mere 49.
Halo Darlin sat behind a blazing pace in her debut. She kicked strongly late and won by five. She galloped out big and is bred to run long. Sired by Lucky Pulpit, she is the first foal out of a multiple stakes-winning dam. Two turns should be perfect for Halo Darlin.
The play will be: Songbird over Halo Darlin in the exacta; Songbird over “all” over Halo Darlin in the trifecta. If all nine start, the $1 trifecta is $7. For the sake of simplicity, the one-way exacta can be played also for $7.
Saturday might be a chalk-fest. That’s okay because if Kyriaki hits the board in race 7, or if Halo Darlin hits the board in race 8, the gambling could be as good as the racing.