Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, Oct. 3

ARCADIA, Calif. – If there is a double-digit winner Saturday at Santa Anita, that horse is well hidden. That is okay. There will be plenty of overlay prices available later this month when the Breeders’ Cup lands at Keeneland.

In the meantime, a bettor might stay out of trouble backing middle-odds runners in three races Saturday at Santa Anita – two maidens and a tough-trip mare in a turf stakes.

Race 4

Bob Baffert trains the favorites in this one-mile maiden race for 2-year-olds. Both are likely to improve – NIGHTLY NEWS and ARABIAN LEOPARD. Nightly News finished second in his debut at one mile; Arabian Leopard got wiped out at the break and finished fourth as the odds-on favorite in his debut. They are 2-1 and 5-2, respectively.

The value is SEMPER FORTIS, listed at 4-1. Sired by Distorted Humor and a sibling to Grade 1 winners Carpe Diem and J.B.’s Thunder, Semper Fortis finished a sharp second in his debut, and then bombed, finishing fifth in his next start Aug. 29. Both were sprints.

Trainer Doug O’Neill theorized he did not give Semper Fortis enough time between starts (27 days). O’Neill said the colt would not start again until a two-turn race in fall. Well, here we are.

Semper Fortis has a steady work pattern and a pedigree that suggests he will appreciate the route. Semper Fortis is worth a straight bet, even if his odds dip slightly to 7-2. Anything less and it’s a pass.

Race 5

A $30,000 maiden-claiming race for 2-year-olds is not typically the highlight of a Saturday card. This might be the exception if well-intended second-time starter I’MCOMINGTHROUGH runs as expected.

I’mcomingthrough raced greenly in his debut, took dirt racing behind runners, and finished evenly for fourth. He stretches out from 5 1/2 furlongs to six, adds blinkers, and may have more speed than he showed first time. I’mcomingthrough is listed at 7-2. He is worth a straight bet at 3-1 or higher.

Race 9

JOURNEY ON finished behind Gender Agenda when they met Sept. 5 at Del Mar. It might have been a different story except that Journey On broke slowly and was stuck in traffic from the quarter pole to the eighth pole. Journey On and Gender Agenda meet again Saturday in the $70,000 Swingtime Stakes at a mile on turf; they are closer in ability than the 2 1/4 lengths that separated them last out.

Journey On is listed at 9-2, and worth a straight bet at 7-2 or higher.

Semper Fortis in race 4, I’mcomingthrough in race 5 and Journey On in race 9. It’s enough action for a Saturday at Santa Anita.