Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, Oct. 18

ARCADIA, Calif. – If handicappers knew that the Santa Anita main track would be as biased Saturday as it was Friday, planning would be easy – just find the speed.

The bias on Friday was real. One does not normally see age-restricted claiming routes won by as far as The Mad Hungarian won race 2. He went the opening half-mile in 46.25 seconds, not excessively fast but honest. The Mad Hungarian drew off by more than 16 lengths.

Race 5 was a one-mile maiden race for California-bred 2-year-olds. Pulmarack engaged in a pace duel. He went the opening half-mile in a blistering 45.70 seconds. Rather than tire, he opened up eight lengths at the furlong pole and won by 4 1/2.

Pulmarack went the opening half-mile in 45.70, followed by a second half-mile in 52.55. It was ready-made for a closer, right? Wrong. That is a true bias. Horses run fast, die home, and it does not matter. The closers spin their wheels, and speed sticks.

It is necessary to review Friday to prepare for Saturday. Unfortunately, the Saturday card is grim. The six dirt races include three maiden-claiming races, a good maiden special weight sprint, a non-winners-of-two claiming race, and a five-horse claiming sprint.

Will the speed bias continue Saturday? It could. But it probably will not. Santa Anita track superintendent Dennis Moore is cognizant of bias. His priorities are safety and a fair surface. Moore understands bias and usually fixes it after a day.

This is not to suggest that the Santa Anita main track will be closer-friendly. That almost never happens. It is a dirt track, after all, and California dirt usually rewards speed.

There are only two races in which this handicapper plans to be involved, possibly three, depending on price. The first is an overlay at low odds, which sounds like a contradiction. The $100,000 California Flag includes a 2-1 second choice who should be 6-5.

The second opportunity is a crazy horse at a giant price. He is a maiden-claiming sprinter in the last race at 15-1. He might be a total bust. But at the price, it is worth finding out.

Below are two races that will key the day and another to monitor for potential value.

Race 3

The scratch of Red Outlaw (runs Sunday) makes it a five-horse field in the $100,000 California Flag Handicap, a turf sprint. Tamarando is the 9-5 program favorite.

The 2-1 second choice, Boozer, looks like a standout. The pace should be slow, and Boozer could be loose. The only other front-runner is Super Ability, whose speed is route speed. The stakes race is a sprint. At 2-1, Boozer is a giant overlay. He could drop to 3-2 and still be an overlay. Wouldn't want to take any lower than that.

Race 7

This sprint for 2-year-old special-weight maidens is the best race on the card. Although it might not include a prime betting opportunity, one never knows. Expectations are high for the $1.7 million colt Cyrus Alexander.

A half-brother to Super Saver, Cyrus Alexander has worked extremely well for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Rafael Bejarano has been on the colt in the morning. He is 5-2 on the line, and he is the most probable winner.

However, second preference Fame and Power is better than his most recent suggests. Bob Baffert kicked himself for taking blinkers off last out. He misfired. Blinkers are back on Saturday, and Fame and Power should return to form. At 4-1 or higher, he is interesting.

Race 9

The bomber of the day is a 2-year-old California-bred maiden racing for a $50,000 tag – Tiz All That is 15-1. The 5 1/2-furlong sprint came up without much speed. He might make the lead while dropping for the first time into a maiden-claiming race.

Tiz All That had alibis in his first two starts. He broke slowly, and second out was simply not good enough to chase the blistering pace. If he clears the field Saturday, bombs away. Tiz All That is worth backing at 9-1 or higher.