Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, Oct. 17
ARCADIA, Calif. – Three races Saturday at Santa Anita include legitimate contenders at attractive odds – a comebacking sprint claimer in race 2, two overlays in a turf allowance that is race 6, and an allowance sprinter in race 7. Those three races are the focus of this handicapper’s wagering plan, beginning with a longshot early on the card. It could be a fun Saturday.
Race 2
The favorite in this $20,000 claiming sprint is JONNY’S CHOICE. He is no sure thing; his last two wins were $12,500 claiming starter and $8,000 claiming. When a low-level claimer is the favorite in a midlevel claiming race, it can be time to shop for a price.
LUCA is 12-1 in the program and worth a look for veteran longshot trainer E.G. “Bill” Burnison. The gelding will make his first start since winning an 870-yard race two months ago at Los Alamitos. Luca is almost fast enough. The 77 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in his most recent start at Santa Anita is nearly as high as the best recent numbers by Jonny’s Choice. Luca has an outside post and speed for a pressing trip. He has run well vs. similar.
Luca at 12-1 is the overlay in race 2.
Race 6
This is a play against favorite THE GOMPER as much as it is a play “on” two overlays in this N1X at a mile on turf. The Gomper is a deep closer who always is overbet. He also is winless in seven starts since his sprint debut. Can he win at a mile on turf? Of course he can. Does 7-2 represent value? It does not.
GRACHUS THE HUNTER at 6-1 and ITSINTHEPOST at 12-1 are overlays. Grachus the Hunter has enough speed for a pressing trip in a race that is not exactly filled with pace. The scenario benefits Grachus the Hunter and might compromise The Gomper. Itsinthepost is familiar. This handicapper liked him two weeks ago in a similar N1X, but his rally stalled, and he finished fourth. Maybe the 1 1/8-mile distance was too far? He shortens up to a mile on Saturday and is worth one final gamble.
Grachus the Hunter and Itsinthepost are the overlays in race 6.
Race 7
The favorite in this N1X sprint is SKELTON PASS, who earned a 77 Beyer three weeks ago on this track. That won’t get it done in a N1X. The second choice is CAMINETTO, whose speed-figure decline corresponds to a drop in class. Caminetto can win (top choice), but 4-1 is a very low price.
DISTINCTIVE B has an upset chance. His first three starts since returning from a long layoff included two dominating wins and a better-than-it-looked fourth in a similar sprint. And last time out, he had no shot. Distinctive B broke from an inside post, was pressured from the outside, and retreated. Distinctive B could not take the heat. On Saturday, he moves to a post closer to the outside, where he can apply the pressure instead of being on the receiving end.
Distinctive B at 12-1 is the overlay in race 7.
That is four overlays in three races. It could be a fun Saturday.