Free: How I'd Play Santa Anita for Saturday, Oct. 15

ARCADIA, Calif. – It seems overlays occur less often as they did once upon a time in Southern California. For discerning bettors, most races are good races to pass.

There are exceptions, including three possibilities Saturday at Santa Anita.

A maiden who lost both starts by double-digit margins, an outclassed claiming horse moving up to an allowance, and a gelding who has lost 15 in a row each has upset potential despite obvious imperfections.

Race 2, a seven-furlong sprint for 2-year-old maiden fillies, includes the debut of fast-working Princess Karen. The most likely winner, she offers minimal value as the 8-5 favorite.

My Alchemist is listed at 10-1. Based on margin of defeat in both her starts, the price makes sense. My Alchemist lost her debut by more than 12 lengths and her second start by more than 15. Both races were at Del Mar.

However, what My Alchemist did the first half-mile in both starts suggests she has a chance to wire the field Saturday in her first start at Santa Anita and first since late August.

My Alchemist went a half-mile in 45 and change before fading in her debut. It was not unexpected for a longshot by Mineshaft, whose progeny have lost 92 percent of the time first time out. In her second start, My Alchemist went fast again. She dueled inside, and faded.

Since then, My Alchemist has been freshened. She is working steadily at San Luis Rey. She has an amazing trainer stat in her favor. Since April 2015, Richard Baltas is 11 for 25 with special-weight maidens returning from a layoff of 45 days or more.

Race 7, a first-level allowance at a mile on turf, includes American League. He underachieved most of his first 10 starts. But when he tried turf last out, he ran the race of his career.

American Legion upset $50,000 claiming 3-year-olds in stylish fashion, with a good speed figure. Perhaps he will be overmatched Saturday, up in class to face older allowance horses. But if turf was the key, he can win at 7-2 on the morning line.

Race 8, a first-level allowance at 1 1/16 miles on dirt, is not exactly loaded with speed. The scenario benefits Got Even, an 8-1 pace-presser/front-runner whose last win was Jan. 11, 2015. Since then, he has lost 15 consecutive races.

Got Even returns from a two-month freshening for trainer Bill Spawr. If the gelding can make the lead, as expected, in a race light on pace, he could be gone.

My Alchemist in race 2, American League in race 7, and Got Even in race 8 are the price plays Saturday at Santa Anita. As for other six races, perhaps they are good races to pass.