Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, Oct. 11

ARCADIA, Calif. – Pre-planned wagering strategy is always subject to change.

Sometimes the odds don’t make sense. Other times, a key scratch alters a race. It’s good to have a plan. It’s also good to know when to change that plan.

Without being locked into anything, below is how this handicapper plans to manage the Saturday card at Santa Anita. Races 2, 5 and 6 are mainly for action. The value is on races 8 and 9.

Race 2, win wager

ZENDAI (No. 8) is the key in this maiden special weight for 2-year-olds at 5 1/2 furlongs. He is listed at 7-2. That is a fair price; wouldn’t take anything less.

Unless one of the first-time starters is quick, ZENDAI should clear. He set a blazing pace to deep stretch last time in a stakes. Now he shortens to 5 1/2 furlongs, drops in to face maidens, and should be gone.

The challenge is leveraging 7-2 into something more. But neither race before or after offers value. Races 1 and race 3 each has six starters; the favorites look solid. As such, no horizontal wager. A straight bet on ZENDAI at minimum odds of 7-2, or nothing at all.

Races 5-6, low-odds double

ALFA BIRD (No. 4) in race 5 is the most probable winner on the card. A second-start maiden who ran well in his debut at Del Mar, he followed up with fast works at Santa Anita. He is the 5-2 program favorite.

Race 6 is a California-bred turf allowance at 1 1/8 miles. The race came up short on speed. That is fine for MAL VERDE (No. 3), who stretches out for the first time. He could make the lead, or press a tepid pace. MAL VERDE is 7-2, which seems short for a horse running long for the first time in his career.

This is another conservative play mainly for the sake of action. A daily double that links two favorites is not creative. But that’s the bet. In races 5-6, ALFA BIRD to MAL VERDE.

Races 8-9, value

Value, finally.

In race 8, lightly raced RUSTY ROAD (No. 3) enters on an improving pattern, including a solid runner-up finish last out in a similar N1X route. He is 6-1, and should get a good trip positioned right behind the speed.

In race 9, stakes winner WARREN’S VENEDA (No. 2) could fall under the radar. Her misfire last out at Del Mar can be excused. She bled through Lasix. Freshened since, the 5-for-18 pro has worked well and has run well over this turf course. She also is 6-1.

RUSTY ROAD in race 8 and WARREN’S VENEDA in race 9 are the same price on the program at 6-1. Both are straight bets at that price, and should be played in a daily double linking the two.