Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, Oct. 1
Want to bet winners? The Saturday card at Santa Anita is a good card for that, particularly rock-solid favorites in races 6-9.
Klimt (6-5), California Chrome (2-5), Zipessa (7-2) and Beholder (3-5) are favored to win Grade 1’s. At those prices, a $2 win parlay would return $44.
Perhaps there are more appealing chances available than combining four favorites, no matter their reliability. With that in mind, below are Grade 1 opportunities Saturday at Santa Anita.
Race 6, FrontRunner
Straight Fire could wire the field as the 9-5 second choice behind standout Klimt. But from this perspective, Straight Fire is a bet-against. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, has tried to teach the colt to ration his speed by giving him two-minute licks rather than full-speed works.
Straight Fire has only one work, by design, since he last raced. It might be enough. But if the Santa Anita main track is as slow in the afternoon as in the morning, Straight Fire’s speed could be less effective. If he finishes one-two, this bettor will lose.
The play is an exacta, keying likely winner Klimt over improving Midnight Pleasure and impressive debut winner Gormley.
Race 7, Awesome Again
California Chrome popped the gate in the Pacific Classic, and wired the field. Dortmund was left reeling in third. However, on Saturday Dortmund adds blinkers and returns to a track on which he is 5 for 5. He is expected to take command.
California Chrome probably will win, although pace dynamics have changed. Dortmund is speed. He could shake loose. At 5-2 in the program, Dortmund is no bargain, but bettors playing multi-race wagers should consider the possibility of a front-running upset.
Race 8, Rodeo Drive
Zipessa faces easier after a good third in the Grade 1 Beverly D. at Arlington. A front-runner/pace-presser, Zipessa was compromised by the race shape in the Beverly D. The one-two finishers rallied from 11th and 13th.
A tepid pace is expected in the Rodeo Drive; Zipessa is facing easier. At 7-2 in the program, Zipessa is worth a win wager. At less than her morning line, she is a pass.
Race 9, Zenyatta Stakes
Beholder has won 13 of 14 at Santa Anita, and has an alibi for finishing second to Stellar Wind two back. Beholder’s works were messed up. It showed in her runner-up performance. She bounced back with a good second in the Pacific Classic, and worked super last weekend at Santa Anita. Beholder should defeat Stellar Wind in the Zenyatta.
Meanwhile, a potential play is stretch-out Tara’s Tango, a “longshot” believed to be prepping for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Tara’s Tango has speed, could seize the lead, and has a shot to wire the field.
Beholder and Stellar Wind are likely to run past Tara’s Tango. But if she holds at her 6-1 morning line, Tara’s Tango is too tempting to pass.
Race 10, Chandelier Stakes
Champagne Room was an unhappy filly in the Del Mar Debutante. She finished third. Noted and Quoted did not train well into the Debutante. She finished fourth. After returning to Santa Anita, both fillies turned the corner.
Champagne Room has calmed down and trained well. Noted and Quoted has worked super. Both should improve, either could win. They must catch front-runners Zapperkat and American Cleopatra.
Meanwhile, a bomber lurks. She is a second-start maiden that finished a better-than-looked third in her debut. Mistressofthenight is expected to relish the mile and a sixteenth distance Saturday. Trainer Richard Baltas contemplated a maiden route for her on Friday.
But after bullish input from jockey Kent Desormeaux, who believes Mistressofthenight has Breeders’ Cup potential, Baltas opted for the Grade 1.
Mistressofthenight probably is not good enough. However, at double-digit odds, the second-start maiden is poised to outrun her price.
It’s a good card Saturday at Santa Anita. Perhaps all the favorites will win.
But appealing wagering opportunities are available, with potential overlays is almost every race.