Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, July 9
ARCADIA, Calif. – Let’s face it: When turf racing ended three weeks ago at Santa Anita, a tailspin began.
Small fields are unattractive. Field sizes at Santa Anita are low. That sums it up. Before turf racing ended June 19, the average field size was 7.5 starters per race. Since then, on dirt only, the average field size has dwindled to 6.4.
It is not much better Saturday, with an average of 6.5 starters per race.
This is not meant to criticize. Turf races accounted for 30 percent of the Santa Anita program before the course was shut down for replacement. This is merely a risk-reward reminder. When the potential reward is low, it makes sense to risk less. The median win payoff (half higher, half lower) over the past three weeks on dirt is $6.80.
Therefore, only one play is offered on the last Saturday of the Santa Anita meet while looking forward to the first Friday at Del Mar. Opening day is July 15.
The play Saturday is a daily double on races 4 and 5, taking a stand against the best horse on the card.
Race 4
Firing Line might win this second-level allowance route. After all, he has accomplished more than his five rivals combined. The runner-up in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Firing Line is one of 38 dirt horses in 2015 to earn triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures on three or more occasions.
However, Firing Line has not started since he was eased in the 2015 Preakness. That was more than a year ago. His longest recorded work is five furlongs; he will race one mile Saturday. Firing Line’s trainer, Simon Callaghan, said he has not “tightened the screws.”
Best horse? Of course he is. But Saturday is merely a starting point for Firing Line, the 4-5 favorite. He is the type of low-odds horse whom one is virtually obligated to wager against.
Two others enter with “now” dirt credentials. Kristo finished second last out in a fast-paced route at this level. He is listed at 7-2 on the early line. Conquest Cobra, in the money twice recently in fast races, stretches back out and moves up in class. He is listed at 8-1. Kristo and Conquest Cobra are the two horses to use in the first leg of the double.
Race 5
The $125,000 Landaluce Stakes is the season’s first stakes for 2-year-olds in Southern California. The field includes two of the most impressive juvenile filly winners of the meet.
Miss Southern Miss ran like a seasoned pro first out. She raced inside and behind rivals, took dirt, split horses, and scampered away by more than three lengths. She is trained by Keith Desormeaux, who won the Landaluce a year ago with the maiden Right There.
Miss Southern Miss is listed as the 5-2 second favorite.
Chalon also won her debut, going wire to wire while earning a 79 Beyer that is the highest of the meet by a 2-year-old. Of course, the best 2-year-olds typically debut at Del Mar. It also is true that Chalon got a slow opening quarter (22.32 seconds) and will jam back in only 16 days.
Chalon is not perfect, but she is talented and figures for a pressing trip from the outside post. Chalon is trained by Peter Miller, who won the 2006 Landaluce with a filly coming off a maiden win. Chalon is the 2-1 program favorite. Miss Southern Miss and Chalon are the two horses to use in the second leg of the double.
The play is simple – $2 doubles, four combinations, $8 total.
Race 4: Conquest Cobra (2) and Kristo (6)
Race 5: Miss Southern Miss (3) and Chalon (7)
Firing Line could come back firing. If so, the double will be done early. Either way, Santa Anita ends this weekend. Big fields and grass racing return next week at Del Mar.