Free: How I'd play Santa Anita for Saturday, Feb. 7

The Santa Anita crowd will still be filtering in Saturday when the day’s first overlay starts in race 1.

MINISTERS PRAYER (5) is 8-1 in the opener, a California-bred $50,000 maiden-claiming sprint. The colt’s odds should be at least that high, yet there are reasons to believe he can outrun his price.

Ministers Prayer broke from the rail first out, gunned inside to press the pace, steadied sharply and dropped out on the turn, then went evenly. It was a better-than-looked debut by a colt that finished next to last at 20-1. His odds should be high again Saturday.

With a race under his belt, a better post, and two decent works since raced, Ministers Prayer is a key horse for this handicapper.

CYRUS ALEXANDER (7) is favored again in race 3. I picked him in the maiden dirt route, but don’t trust him even with blinkers on. The $1.7 million half-brother to Super Saver is rapidly becoming the Santa Anita version of Gulfstream Park-based Battle Red.

Both 3-year-old maidens have been favored every start. Cyrus Alexander has started four times; Battle Red has started seven times. Race 3 Saturday is a pass.

But the race-4 favorite is playable. BATTLE OF EVERMORE (3) is five starts into his career, and also gets bet every time. But he should win this turf sprint. He ran super last out, and benefits from a return to turf. Battle of Evermore is a single in the exotics.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

FIRING LINE (5) and DORTMUND (6) are the principals in race 5, the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis for 3-year-olds. The tactical speed of Firing Line gives him the edge over Dortmund. However, third preference ROCK SHANDY (2) is intriguing at 6-1.

Rock Shandy ran super last out in the Grade 3 Sham, his first start on dirt. He was no match for since-sidelined Calculator, but he took another step forward. I plan to bet Rock Shandy straight, and in exactas with the favorites.

DYNAMIC SKY (8) is the most probable winner on the card in race 7, the Grade 2 San Marcos at 1 1/4 miles on turf. His sixth-place finish last out was much better than it looks. Blocked through the stretch, he galloped out super and benefits from the added distance. Best of all, he is not favored. I’ll take him at 3-1.

It is “crazy time” in the Grade 2 San Antonio. Everyone knows )SHARED BELIEF (5) and CALIFORNIA CHROME (8) are the stars. What no one knows is how far ALFA BIRD (9) will lead the field.

Alfa Bird and California Chrome are the only front-runners/pressers in the field. Assuming that California Chrome sits second, Alfa Bird could be loose on the lead. He is 30-1 in the program. I expect his odds to be half that; 15-1 is okay on the speed horse.

:: SAN ANTONIO: Get PPs, watch Saturday’s card live

It’s a good card. Good luck.