Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, Feb. 28

ARCADIA, Calif. – The rain forecast in Southern California will complicate planning for Saturday at Santa Anita. Two races are scheduled for turf – race 1 at 1 1/8 miles and race 4 at 6 1/2 furlongs on the hill.

One or both turf races could be moved to dirt. As for the condition of the main track, it will depend on the amount of rain, if any. What is the bottom line? Saturday is a good day to tread lightly.

Race 1

The improving BLUE LAW (#3) is solid in this 1 1/8-mile maiden race. The race is scheduled for turf, but even if taken off, Blue Law is formidable. His dirt comeback two starts ago was an acceptable return. He improved last out finishing second at a mile on turf. Blue Law is a solid favorite on either surface.

An upset candidate is the 12-1 outsider MILTEE (#8). A six-start maiden, he has endured multiple bad trips under jockey Mario Gutierrez. One of these days, Miltee will get clear sailing, and we’ll find out his true ability. He might be better than his record. He might not be. If he starts at 12-1 or higher, Miltee is worth consideration.

Race 3

This is the right spot to wager against the favorite NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR (#4), whose five recent starts produced four wins. He started the meet in an $8,000 claiming sprint. He runs Saturday for $22,000. Perhaps he will win again, but he faces a worthy rival.

One-level dropper OLIGARCH (#5) has more speed than the favorite. At six furlongs, Oligarch will get first run. No bargain at 5-2, just a solid alternative to the chalk.

Races 5-7, good chalk

The main reason this handicapper will adopt a cautionary strategy Saturday is because many favorites look good, including those in races 5-7. It is tough to make money long term backing short prices.

In race 5, MASOCHISTIC (#6) is odds on. He towers over his rivals on figures and has trained well for his first start since September. Want to back a comebacker at 4-5? Not a great idea, even if Masochistic is the most probable winner on the card.

In race 6, THE MAN (#2) and WABEL (#4) are favorite and second favorite, respectively, in this route for 3-year-old maidens. Bob Baffert trains both front-runners. Whichever colt sets the pace could be gone. An upset candidate is HONOR SOCIETY (#5), who has been begging for two turns. Slow on numbers, he can improve stretching out with blinkers on.

Race 7 marks the return of LUMINANCE (#7), among the most impressive juvenile fillies of 2014. She ran only once and won big. This one-mile allowance is her comeback, and she should win. But she is 8-5 for her first start in seven months. That price is no bargain.

Race 8

The scratch of CURLIN’S FOX (#2) makes GLORY (#9) the top choice in this Grade 3 route for 3-year-old fillies. The runner-up finish by Glory last out in a synthetic-surface route at Golden Gate sets her up for a return to dirt. Glory will drop from 6-1 on the early line. She is worth a play at 4-1 or higher.
Saturday is forecast to be wet and, therefore, a good day to play conservatively.