Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Saturday, April 11

ARCADIA, Calif. – A veteran wheeling back in eight days and a second-start maiden longshot are the keys to this handicapper’s Saturday at Santa Anita.

They are in races 2 and 4; a temptation is to use them to fashion a pick five on races 1-5. But there are problems with that idea, beginning with NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR in the first race. He offers negligible value at 4-5 but looks tough to bet against.

A similar dilemma arises in the final leg of the pick five, an interesting Grade 2 sprint. The trouble is that top-choice favorite MASOCHISTIC does not “have to” win, nor does top-class comebacker SAHARA SKY. Sure, the pick five would be fun. But the favorites in the first and last legs appear both formidable and void of value. The pick five is a pass.

The plan is to keep it simple and go race by race. That means an old-school win bet in race 2 and a win/exacta play in race 4.

Race 2

LOS BAMBINOS (8) benefitted from a crawling pace eight days ago, when he wired N1X foes on this turf course at the same one-mile distance. Can he get the same trip again? He does not need to.

An eight-time winner from 27 starts, Los Bambinos is just as comfortable pressing the pace as he is setting the pace. And while he meets another field conspicuously void of speed, his outside draw gives him the option of making the lead or pressing in the clear.

Furthermore, Los Bambinos is facing easier. The $40,000 claiming field he defeated last week might have been stronger than the N1X/optional $40,000 claiming field he meets Saturday. Los Bambinos has a history of putting together a series of top efforts.

Los Bambinos is listed at 7-2 and worth a straight bet at 3-1 or higher.

Race 4

Likely favorite BOAT DRINKS (5) “should” win this turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares. A runner-up in all three starts, her most recent effort was validated Thursday when the filly who beat her, Avenge, came back to win an allowance. Boat Drinks is 3-1 in the program behind 5-2 Emyvale Court. Those prices are likely to flip-flop.

Boat Drinks is solid, but an upset candidate lurks at 12-1. She is BETTERLETHERGO (2), a second-time starter from a stable with a recent history of second-start improvement. Over the past six months, trainer Michael McCarthy has had four second-start maidens: Whisk won March 7 at $30.20, Longstocking finished third Dec. 27, No Problem won Oct. 26 at $8, and Unblunted won Oct. 18 at $20.80.

That’s three wins from his last four second-start maidens.

Betterlethergo represents a trainer angle, nothing more. She is not exactly bred for turf. Her sire, Hold Me Back, has one turf winner from 20 turf starters. Her dam is by Kris S., yet none of her five previous runners won on turf.

Betterlethergo is a trainer-angle gamble at a price. The play is a straight bet on Betterlethergo at 9-1 or higher and an exacta box with likely favorite and most probable winner Boat Drinks.