Free: How I'd play Santa Anita on Friday, Dec. 26

ARCADIA, Calif. – Opening day at the Great Race Place can be dangerous to a bankroll. The temptation is to come out firing. Fields are big, and overlay opportunities abound.

Well, maybe.

Shared Belief “should” win the Grade 1 Malibu, race 8. However, the best horse is likely to be overplayed. He is 4-5 on the morning line.

The overlay might be second preference Midnight Hawk. He is quicker than the favorite. Midnight Hawk has excuses for recent duds. He broke slowly, rushed, and cracked in his comeback. Second out, on a synthetic surface that he did not care for, he did something similar.

Since then, Midnight Hawk has worked super. A graded stakes winner and four-time graded stakes-placed, he takes off blinkers and will be in front of the favorite turning for home. Chances are, Shared Belief will blow past. But at his 6-1 morning line or higher, Midnight Hawk is worth fooling with.

Two other Friday stakes are the Grade 1 La Brea and Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile, races 6 and 7.

La Brea favorite Taris is buried on the rail inside four other speeds. It is a seven-furlong sprint, and Taris is in danger of being run into the ground. If she is, three upset candidates could run past. They are Jojo Warrior, Sam’s Sister, and Thank You Marylou.

Jojo Warrior is trained by Bob Baffert, a seven-time La Brea winner. The filly drew outside, also has worked well, and has a versatile style that should lead to a good trip right behind the speed. She is 4-1 on the line. That is a fair price; nothing less will do.

Sam’s Sister did not care for turf last out. Her first three starts were on dirt, all wins, all with improving speed figures. She is 8-1, also a fair price.

This handicapper overlooked Thank You Marylou, a closer in a race that could fall apart. Third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, she will be running late at 6-1.

In some way, shape, or form, I plan to “use” those three closers. And if Taris reproduces her last-out 110 Beyer Speed Figure, the La Brea will be a loss. But if the pace falls apart, look for Jojo Warrior, Sam’s Sister, or Thank You Marylou in the winner’s circle.

Heart to Heart is the “most probable winner” on the card in the Mathis Brothers. But at 5-2, a wager on the sharp East Coast shipper would be purely for the sake of action.

The opening-day plan is to resist temptation and fool around in two races – Midnight Hawk in the Malibu and three “longshot” closers in the La Brea. That is how I plan to play the opening-day card at Santa Anita. Of course, plans are always subject to change.