Free: How I'd play Los Alamitos on Sunday, July 12

CYPRESS, Calif. – It is difficult to construct cheerful betting strategy on a racing card such as Sunday at Los Alamitos. Barring a carryover into closing day (mandatory payout day), the card offers little attraction. Small fields will do that.

The first three races have 5, 6, and 5 starters each. The feature race has six. The search for value in small fields usually is a futile chase, so the first three races are a pass.

Race 4 is the first leg of the closing-day pick six, and first-time starter BAR FOUR meets a modest maiden-20 field. Recent works by Bar Four are solid. He worked in company June 24 with Don’t Tell Jackie, a 2-year-old filly scheduled to debut Saturday in race 4.

Bar Four is 4-1 in the program. On Sunday, that might qualify as value.

Race 5 is a $12,500 claiming starter. The rapidly improving TESTER would offer value at 7-2 over a different surface. Although the Los Alamitos track is perceived as “fair,” the profile in route races does not favor Tester.

Into Saturday, every route had been won by a horse within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the quarter pole. Los Alamitos has the longest stretch in North America, but horses basically run in place. Positional change is rare through the lane.

Tester is a deep closer. He might win anyway, but his style puts him at a disadvantage. So race 5 is a pass.

Race 6 favorite JACKIE K runs well fresh, has speed, and returns at the lowest level of her career – maiden-30. She should win as the 8-5 program choice. While it is always fun to cash tickets, long-range profit backing maiden-claiming favorites is tough to achieve.

Race 7 favorite SAVANNAH SKY is a lightly raced filly moving up to N1X, but she is vulnerable. The filly she beat (Mahee) returned Friday to finish a bad third. Furthermore, Savannah Sky’s trainer Richard Baltas entered the weekend having lost 27 straight since June 5.

DISSENSION has speed, was claimed last out by Phil D’Amato, and offers a reasonable alternative at 3-1.

In terms of quality, the 2-year-olds running in race 8, the $75,000 Summer Juvenile Stakes, are well below those that will run this summer at Del Mar. MRAZEK is the choice, but he faces a challenging pace scenario due to the speedster two stalls to his outside. SWIPE is a maiden, which is no big deal, but 5-2 is short.

When all is said and done, RALIS could go favored based on his sharp last-out maiden win. Only six entered the Summer Juvenile, and it’s probably another pass race.

The meet ends with a maiden 20 and a likely winner in DEE FOR DAVE.

The 5-2 favorite, he finished third in a similar spot 10 days ago and should get a good trip positioned second behind the likely pacesetter MASTERS CIRCLE.
The closing day card is filled with small fields and limited value.

Race 6 favorite Jackie K and race 9 favorite Dee for Dave are potential singles. Dissension is an alternative to Savannah Sky in race 7.

The Sunday card at Los Alamitos is not a card in which to be heavily involved.