Free: How I'd play Friday's Breeders' Cup card

ARCADIA, Calif. – What fun it would be to come out swinging on Breeders’ Cup Friday with creative handicapping and “beat-the-favorite” strategy in all four BC races. But darn, favorites Goldencents (Dirt Mile) and Untapable (Distaff) mess it all up. Or do they?

Goldencents is the most heavily favored BC runner Friday. He looks like a slam dunk. Goldencents is the main speed on a surface kind to his style. His current form is Grade 1 sharp; he won the Dirt Mile a year ago.

Goldencents is the 7-5 favorite on the Daily Racing Form odds line.

Historians will accurately point out the unpredictable nature of the Dirt Mile – favorites are 0 for 7. No favorite has even hit the board since the first Dirt Mile way back in 2007. Maybe there is something to that.

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But a decade of history does not supersede fundamental handicapping. Goldencents should be gone. The Dirt Mile is race 7, smack in the middle of the pick four and the pick six. Multirace bettors can single Goldencents, or throw fundamentals out the window.

From this handicapper’s perspective, Goldencents is a single.

The final BC race Friday is the Distaff, race 9. Untapable is the 2-1 favorite by DRF , with Close Hatches at 5-2.

Untapable would be formidable on a neutral surface. But the Santa Anita main track has become increasingly conducive to speed – 21 of the last 23 routes (through Sunday) were won by a horse within two lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.

That presents a challenge for the off-the-pace style of Untapable. She must overcome the profile and probably is good enough to do just that. But it’s tough to take a short price going against the grain. Untapable, therefore, is not a single.

Race 6 is the Juvenile Turf. Conquest Typhoon has done little wrong, even if he has won just 1 of 4, with 3 seconds. His recent synthetic-surface loss was merely a prep race.

The clincher was his smasher in the Summer Stakes on turf; he won with plenty left. His style suits Santa Anita, and though Europeans have won this race in five of the last six years, 2010 winner Pluck prepped at Woodbine. Conquest Typhoon also prepped at Woodbine.

Conquest Typhoon is an overlay. A good horse in good form, his proven class and pace-speed figures make him a contender at a price.

Race 8, the Juvenile Fillies Turf, is a scramble. Lady Eli’s wins in New York were better than they looked (traffic, visually impressive). Europeans won this race the last two years; the top Euros this year are Osaila and Qualify (post 14). The knock on the favorite, Sunset Glow, is that she has not run beyond a sprint.

As for wagering strategy, there is plenty from which to choose. The Friday card is 10 races; the pick six is races 4-9, ending with the Distaff. Pick fours (50-cent minimum) begin with races 3, 6, and 7. The least-expensive wager (14 percent takeout) remains the pick five on races 1-5, and Irish Surf appears to be a single in race 2.

A Friday BC strategy is summarized below.

Race 6, Juvenile Turf

Conquest Typhoon is worth a straight bet. He will be a key in the pick four, which also will include Commemorative (No. 4), Hootenanny (No. 5), and Aktabantay (No. 9).

Race 7, Dirt Mile

Goldencents (No. 1) is a pick four single, no straight bets. One backup pick four will include “all.”

Race 8, Juvenile Fillies Turf

Lady Eli is worth a straight bet. She will be a key in the pick four, which also will include Osaila (No. 2), Sunset Glow (No. 3), Isabella Sings (No. 5), and Qualify (No. 14).

Race 9, Distaff

Untapable (No. 10) and Close Hatches (No. 11) are logical, with limited value. The knockout is the improved Ria Antonia (No. 9). She will be used equally with the favorites.

The BC pick four on races 6-9 is below. At 50 cents each, the total investment is $81.

Pick 4 first ticket ($30)

Race 6, Nos. 4, 5, 6, 9 (Commemorative, Hootenanny, Conquest Typhoon, Aktabantay)

Race 7, No. 1 (Goldencents)

Race 8, Nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 14 (Osaila, Sunset Glow, Lady Eli, Isabella Sings, Qualify)

Race 9, Nos. 9, 10, 11 (Ria Antonia, Untapable, Close Hatches)

Pick 4 second ticket ($15)

Race 6, Nos. “all 10”

Race 7, No. 1 (Goldencents)

Race 8, No. 4 (Lady Eli)

Race 9, Nos. 9, 10, 11 (Ria Antonia, Untapable, Close Hatches)

Pick 4 third ticket ($21)

Race 6, No. 6 (Conquest Typhoon)

Race 7, No. 1 (Goldencents)

Race 8, Nos. “all 14”

Race 9, Nos. 9, 10, 11 (Ria Antonia, Untapable, Close Hatches)

Pick 4 fourth ticket ($15)

Race 6, No. 6 (Conquest Typhoon)

Race 7, Nos. “all 10”

Race 8, No. 4 (Lady Eli)

Race 9, Nos. 9, 10, 11 (Ria Antonia, Untapable, Close Hatches)

Trifecta bailout

Knocked out? The Distaff offers a last chance to score.

From 1999 onward, the Distaff’s one-two-three finish rarely has included both top choices. In 14 of the last 15 renewals, one of the two betting favorites ran out.

Perhaps the 2014 Distaff will be similar, even if unlikely. Untapable and Close Hatches tower over the field. Close Hatches seems more likely to misfire, considering that she did exactly that in her last start.

It does not matter. This trifecta will key the improving 3-year-old bomber Ria Antonia. She ran the race of her career last out and worked super since. She is 12-1 by DRF.

The trifecta will insist that Ria Antonia (No. 9) hits the board, along with at least one of the favorites – Untapable (No. 10) and Close Hatches (No. 11).

The plays (50-cent minimum) ($57 total):

Trifecta box 9-10-11 = $3

9 with 10+11 with “all” = $9

9 with “all” with 10+11 = $9

10+11 with 9 with “all” = $9

10+11 with “all” with 9 = $9

“All” with 10+11 with 9 = $9

“All” with 9 with 10+11 = $9

That’s a wrap for Friday. Are you ready for more Saturday?