Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Thursday, Aug. 14

DEL MAR, Calif. – Quality has been higher this season than the Del Mar card offered Thursday. Nonetheless, a discriminating bettor might find value in at least a couple of races. This is how I plan to play.

RACE 3, OVERLAY

Kate’s Event is favored in this $50,000 claiming race at one mile. He does not have to win. The two-turn distance is wrong for a one-turn specialist, and his normally reliable jockey has become mistake-prone.

Make no mistake – Kate’s Event can win. He is a logical, safe selection. He is the best horse and the most likely winner. But as the program favorite, his appeal is minimal.

Race 3 is a good spot to key on the “second-most likely” winner. Fast Track’s synthetic-surface record is not good – 0 for 10 and off the board in all three starts on Polytrack at Del Mar. However, his three starts at Del Mar were possibly better than they looked. He frequently outruns his odds.

Fast Track finished fourth by two lengths in his debut at Del Mar in August 2010. He was 20-1 in the maiden race. In his next start at Del Mar in July 2013, he finished fourth by 3 1/4 lengths as a 36-1 allowance-race outsider. Finally, in his third start at Del Mar, he finished nowhere.

Fast Track outran his price in two of three starts at Del Mar. Maybe he can do it again Thursday. Or maybe Kate’s Event will beat him. At 5-1 in the program for sharp Southwest-based trainer Molly Pearson, Fast Track is worth tinkering with in single-race wagers.

RACES 6-7, DOUBLE

Freethinker is the most likely winner of race 6, a one-mile turf race for maiden fillies and mares. She is the 7-2 third choice in the program. That overlay can be used as leverage in a daily double.

Freethinker makes her second start following a layoff; her comeback was good – third with a perfect trip. Although she benefitted from a ground-saving journey, her pattern is positive, her trainer wins races, and her rivals are modest.
Freethinker is the key in a daily double linking races 6 and 7.

Race 7 is a “spread.” The top choice in the maiden-40K starter allowance is Fable, who won this condition last time as a maiden. It was her first career win; she remains eligible. If she handles the switch from turf to synthetic, she can win again at 9-2 in the program.

A pair of appealing outsiders includes Richard Baltas with first-off-the-claim Adellusion at 6-1 and last-out special-weight winner Cravin’ the Heat at 8-1.

Two modest plays on a modest Thursday card – Fast Track in race 3 and Freethinker to kick off a daily double on races 6 and 7.