Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Nov. 8
DEL MAR, Calif. – Want to back a “sure winner” Sunday at Del Mar? Races 6 and 7 are perfect for that.
TUSK has been running well against good maidens in New York and Kentucky. The 2-year-old meets an ordinary field of locals in race 6 at one mile on turf. POWER JAM has been posting fast workouts for his first start since a dominating debut in February. The high-figure entrant (93 Beyer Speed Figure), he returns in race 7, an allowance sprint.
The problem with Tusk and Power Jam is not their probability of winning. The problem is that their attributes are conspicuous. They will be bet accordingly: excessively. Tusk is 8-5, and Power Jam is 5-2. Both prices are likely to drop.
Meanwhile, three high-odds runners Sunday are more appealing. All three are likely to lose. So what? A bettor does not need to be right often to make money backing horses at high odds.
Race 1 is a $20,000 claiming starter at 1 3/8 miles on turf; CRUCERO is favored. All he did was win the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano three back. He bombed in both successive starts. If he runs back to the San Juan, he can win.
IT IS LIVING WATER is in good form. He finished second last out. The question is distance. Eleven furlongs is a long way for a gelding bred to sprint.
If the favorites are suspect, the door is open for longshot BIRD E HOUSE, seventh last out at Santa Anita. His upset victory two starts back at Del Mar puts him in the picture. Bird E House might be off form, or maybe he prefers Del Mar. At 8-1 in the program, it is worth finding out.
Race 4 is a claiming sprint for 3-year-olds in which GREAT LOU is obvious. The runner-up last out at this level, Great Lou is a five-time winner and 5-2 program favorite. That is the only knock: price.
A less-obvious entrant in race 4 is longshot LOOK TWICE. He had a compromising trip from the rail last out and finished last. On Sunday, he moves to an outside post and drops into the claiming ranks for the first time in his fifth start.
Look Twice ran relatively fast (83 Beyer) in his debut. He could approach that figure while facing easier company from a better post. He is listed at 10-1, a price worthy of a win bet and exacta box with favorite Great Lou.
Race 6 includes perhaps the most probable winner on the card, the aforementioned Tusk. The one-mile turf race also includes a bred-for-turf runner trying turf for the first time. So far, ARABIAN LEOPARD has been a bust. He made three starts, off the board each time, twice as the favorite. But he was sired by Scat Daddy, whose progeny often improve on grass and/or synthetic.
Arabian Leopard might be a dud. But at 8-1 and switching to a surface he is bred for, he is worth one final chance. He is worthy of a win bet and an exacta box with favorite Tusk.
Want to bet on two likely winners Sunday at Del Mar? Okay – Tusk in race 6 and Power Jam in race 7. But to make money long term, one occasionally must wager on less-conspicuous runners. On Sunday at Del Mar, they are Bird E House in race 1, Look Twice in race 4, and Arabian Leopard in race 7.