Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Nov. 22
DEL MAR, Calif. – Two contenders in turf races and a main-track longshot in a sprint stakes are worth consideration Sunday at Del Mar.
Race 1
Most of the time, it is a fool’s errand trying to find value in a six-horse field. Maybe this allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares is an exception.
After two duds on the main track, VELVET MESQUITE returned to turf last out and returned to form, finishing second in a Grade 3 race. The pace-pressing mare, 5 for 10 on turf, drops in class Sunday and figures for a cozy trip positioned right behind the speed.
The program favorite is SUNDAY RULES, a 5-for-6 stakes winner trying grass for the first time. Her pedigree suggests the footing will be fine, not so the pace scenario. Sunday Rules is a front-runner facing the front-runners AMARANTH and HOME JOURNEY. If those three hook up, Velvet Mesquite could get the best trip fourth behind the speed.
Velvet Mesquite is 4-1 in the program and worth a win bet at 7-2 or higher.
Race 7
A large field of 12 entered this turf mile (11 can run), a second-level optional $62,500 claiming race in which the sharpest horse is moving up multiple class levels.
HOBBITS HERO crushed a $32,000 claiming race last out by nearly two lengths with the highest figure of his career. It was his first start for trainer Richard Baltas, whose win percentage with turf-route favorites is outstanding. Over the past year, Baltas is 13 for 27 with turf-route chalk.
The significance of the trainer statistic is clear – when Baltas turf-route runners “figure” to run well, they typically do run well. Hobbits Hero has speed for a pressing trip, he is comfortable setting the pace, and enters as the most probable winner on the card.
Hobbits Hero is the 7-2 program favorite and worth a win bet at 3-1 or higher.
Race 8
BIG MACHER is the class of the field in this $100,000 sprint for California-breds. The knock is the price. Big Macher is the 8-5 program favorite.
Meanwhile, a longshot lurks. SOLID WAGER shortens up from a route to a sprint in a race likely to unfold at a hot pace. It must be noted that his closing style has not been productive this season. Seven-furlong races have been dominated by front-runners and pressers.
But the fractions should be legitimate and provide the sharp Solid Wager sufficient pace at which to run. He has a history of outrunning his odds, with wins at 7-1, 68-1, 14-1, and 7-1. Solid Wager might be overmatched, but at double-digit odds, he is worth gambling on.
Solid Wager is listed at 10-1. The wagering strategy is a win bet and an exacta with Big Macher.