Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, July 20

DEL MAR, Calif. – It is difficult to fashion pre-card wagering strategy for a biased racing surface. That is the dilemma Sunday at Del Mar.

The rail was golden on the main track Thursday, Friday, and most of Saturday.

How will the track play Sunday? The chances are the trend will continue. The inside is always the shortest way around. The first three days, it also was the fastest.

My action Sunday will be limited. This is how I plan to play.

Double, races 3-4

Hard to envision how Itz a Saint will overcome the outside post (9 of 9) in this one-mile race for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares. But at 5-1, she is appealing despite the box.

The Northern California-based trainer Andy Mathis wins at a 25 percent clip, and he has had some success in Southern California. Itz a Saint is first off the claim by Mathis. She will be the key horse in the first half of a daily double.

Maiden 2-year-old fillies go five furlongs in race 4, and I’ll try to bang out a double to the co-second choices Windy Forecast and Maybellene at 7-2. I am throwing out the favorite Tara’s Tango, despite pre-race hype. She is 3-1 and going down.

I will play the double: Itz a Saint (race 3), to Windy Forecast and Maybellene (race 4).

Race 7

The 5-2 favorite is Snaps in this N1X turf route. He looks like standout, assuming he avoids a duel with stretch-out sprinter Monument. I expect Snaps to win.

The problem is that Snaps is obvious. It is tough to make money long term on “obvious” horses that are likely to be hammered by everyone. If I do wager on Snaps, it will be for egotistical purposes only. It is a pass race on a “probable winner” at a short price.

Race 8

When Bob Baffert-trained Lord Nelson won race 1 Saturday, it flattered his filly, Luminance, the 2-year-old making her debut in race 8. Luminance outworked Lord Nelson on July 14, according to the clocker for National Turf. As a result, Luminance will be heavily backed in this five-furlong race.

OK. The value might be the exacta.

The second favorite Conquest Archangel, trained by Mark Casse, ran well in her debut at Churchill Downs. Based on the betting action Casse runners attracted Saturday, it appears bettors already are in love with the stable.

I will throw out Conquest Archangel on principle. Early indications are it will be hard to find value on a Casse trainee early in the meet.

I will key Luminance (Daily Racing Form best bet) over four outsiders drawn to her inside. All four are bred to win early, with reliable connections. All four are prices.

They are Backstreet Lisa, a 15-1 daughter of City Zip trained by Peter Miller; Majestic Presence, an 8-1 Majestic Warrior filly trained by Jerry Hollendorfer; Sheza Lucky Strike, a 20-1 Lookin At Lucky filly trained by Molly Pearson; and Finest City, a 12-1 City Zip filly trained by Eric Kruljac.

I plan to wager an exacta part-wheel – No. 8 with Nos. 1, 2, 5, and 6.

Race 11

Crazy shot. Gilmar is 20-1, dropping to the maiden-20 bottom after breaking slowly his first two starts on grass. He might be a bust, but at the price, he is worth a straight bet.

That is how I plan to play Sunday. Action will be limited.