Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Aug. 9
DEL MAR, Calif. – In terms of quality, the later races Sunday at Del Mar are the best races – a turf allowance for 3-year-old fillies in race 6, a deep sprint for 2-year-old maiden fillies in race 7, and the La Jolla Handicap for 3-year-olds on turf in race 8.
In terms of wagering opportunities, the early races Sunday are the best races – a turf route with a “live” 12-1 shot, a sprint for older maidens with a likely winner at low odds, an allowance sprint with another likely winner at a short price, and an overlay in a turf claimer.
Races 1-4 are the keys to this handicapper’s day, starting with the opener. Only seven fillies and mares entered race 1, a 1 1/16-mile turf route, $28,000-32,000 claiming. The top choice is LOVEINTHESHADOWS (2). The program favorite is THUNDER GALE (1). No need to knock either.
However, a shipper from Northern California merits consideration at a generous price of 12-1. FOREVER A FAN (5) is vastly improved since switching to turf routes. She won two straight, a $6,250 claiming race and a $10,000 claiming race.
Northern California-based trainer Andy Mathis claimed the filly last out. Mathis is 27 percent first off the claim over the past five years. This summer at Del Mar, Mathis is 3 for 13. Mathis is having a good summer.
Forever a Fan might not be good enough. But the class hike from $10,000 to $28,000-32,000 is an optimistic sign. At double-digit odds, she is worth a play.
Race 2 includes the most probable winner on the card. NEW SUMMIT (3) faced good maidens last fall and winter before he was sidelined. He returns with stylish works for trainer Ted H. West. New Summit is the 7-5 favorite. He should win. He looks like a pick-five single.
Race 3 includes the second-most-probable winner on the card. BEN’S DUCHESS (2) returns to dirt and shows a bullet workout one week ago. She should be tough to beat at 8-5. She might be a second pick-five single.
Race 4 is a good race on which to gamble. It’s a $50,000 claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on turf, and BEAST OF BOURBON (5) is spotted for an upset at 5-1. He showed signs of life last out, finishing fourth after a slow start.
If he breaks running and stays in contact, Beast of Bourbon can upset. Those are the keys to this handicapper’s day – price play Forever a Fan in race 1, favorites New Summit and Ben’s Duchess in races 2 and 3, and middle-priced Beast or Bourbon in race 4.