Free: How I'd play Del Mar on Sunday, Aug. 3
DEL MAR, Calif. – Other than a pair of 2-year-old races, the Sunday card is soft. That is an unfortunate byproduct of the cancellation of turf racing until next weekend.
As for wagering strategy Sunday, that is difficult. If the bias continues, a bettor would want to focus on inside speed. The problem is that most frontrunners Sunday are short prices.
Race 1
Will True Up, 5-2, should win race 1, a $25,000 restricted (N2L) claimer. A case can be made for speedy maiden-20 winner Midnight Roar, though his Tom Brohamer-generated Quirin-style pace figures are not as fast as the favorite Will True Up. Not interested.
Race 3
Graeme Crackerjack, 5-2, should win race 3, a $16,000 claiming route. But that analysis was made prior to the emergence of the weekend speed bias. He is 5-2 and should get a good trip positioned right behind the speed. Problem is the speed might not stop.
Diamond of Blue, 7-2, is fast, drawn near the inside, with a tactical advantage. Maybe he will take pressure from Dress Code. But lately at Del Mar, contested speed keeps going. I do not want to wager on a low-odds runners based on a bias. Not interested.
Race 4
Dutch Chocolate, 5-2, should win race 4, second start back. But the sprint for California-bred maiden fillies and mares includes an interesting second-time starter at 6-1. Stylistic was not disgraced in her debut. She has upside and at 6-1 is worth fooling around with.
Race 7
Secretsatmidnight, 3-1, is no cinch in race 7. It is a second-level allowance at one mile. He does have speed and an inside post. That might be enough of a boost. But he is not as good as his record.
His maiden win came via disqualification; his 17-1 upset in an N1X in March seems to be an aberration. Secretsatmidnight will be overplayed. He is a favorite who does not have to win.
Race 8
The one-two favorites in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes have not impressed clockers since arriving at Del Mar. Story to Tell and Bad Read Sanchez are good 2-year-olds on dirt. But the Best Pal is their first on synthetic. Maybe they are vulnerable.
Bottom line
Race 4 “outsider” Stylistic at 6-1 is tempting.
The favorites in races 7 and 8 will be over-bet. They can win, of course. That does not mean they offer value. I will be betting daily doubles, trying to beat the chalk in races 7 and 8.
That is my plan going in, always subject to change.